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文章原始标题:How powerful can the AUKUS, newly established by the United States, Britain and Australia, be in containing China? How solid is this defense alliance?

The problem is it invading Taiwan, as it has ready to do.
Brian Coughlan
This is “AUKUS”.
Three countries - two of which are in imminent danger of fragmentation - on the fringes of a rapidly integrating world. A desperate clique of has-and-might-have-beens. Demographically irrelevant and doomed to a similar economic fate, this alliance isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
Arguably, they’ve made things worse for themselves by driving a wedge between AUKUS and the rest of what is loosely termed “The West”. What is the EU to make of this? Or NATO? And what’s it for? -To “contain” a country that hasn’t fought a war in 40 years? That appears interested only in improving the lives of their 1,4 billion citizens by making things?
Besides all of that, do these countries suffer from some kind of collective historical amnesia? Britain and bits of it’s former Empire - the bits that managed to murder all of the indigenous population in the land they stole - menacing China. Like, again?
This really is tone deaf, last gasp stuff.
So apparently France is pissed. Like really annoyed about this. As one of the big two in the EU, this means the EU is at least miffed. So Australia has managed to annoy two out of three of the worlds largest trading blocks. So that’s going to go well.




Bill Bennett
Maybe AWKWARD is the best word for this US, UK, AUS alliance


Piers Porter
“Three countries - two of which are in imminent danger of fragmentation…”I’m guessing the UK is certainly in danger, but what is the other one? Australia has a homogenous identity, I don’t see any signs of fragmentation there. Did you mean the US? The only divide I can see there is political.


Brian Coughlan
Have you followed US politics recently? They narrowly avoided being plunged into some kind of fascist theocracy - let’s see - oh right! Last year.
The citizens seem almost evenly split 50/50 into two groups pulsating with visceral hatred for each other. This is not a recipe for peace and stability. A crisis will come eventually. Just call me Hari Sheldon.


Arian Inigo
I think China has gotten a lot of things right, but they might soon find out what the US already knows. Ensuring the prosperity of your citizens through global trade requires having solid diplomatic relations with your trading partners and a strong military presence to ensure that no one starts trouble, which can ruin things for everyone if allowed to grow unchecked.


Brian Coughlan
On the contrary. It’s the Americans with their shoot-foreigners-first attitude that has passed its sell-by-date. Capping off the Afghanistan adventure by vaporizing an aid worker and his family was a perfect example of the day-to-day horror they’ve been inflicting.
The Chinese approach is essentially the same as the EU, get the trade flowing and war becomes almost impossible. The difference is that China is applying the approach on a global scale.


Ridwan Jacobs
“Global Trade” and “Solid Diplomatic relations” - like unilaterally cancelling deals and stabing your allies in the back on a regular basis, like they did now to France?


Toderel Adrian-Aurel
Not quite really needed. You only need to help your trading partners to have a strong independent and souverein military capable to defend inself without you permanent military involvment.
A strong industry, a strong economy and a prosperous country with happy and rich peoples can defend itself. That prosperity is what can be achieved with trading partners like China.


Joe Louis
Solid diplomatic relations is important. And China have been trying to do that. But when there's a Bully in the block going around the world threatening, creating conspiracy theories, plotting false Narrative, lying like there's no tomorrow, … then is a tall task. Be objective and read what the US have been doing for the past few years, to contain China PEACEFUL RISE.
No country on planet earth and in human history , have had a Peaceful Rise like China. With no interference in other countries affairs, not a single shot fired, no invasion in other countries, …

【回复】稳固的外交关系很重要。中国一直在努力做到这一点。但是,当有一个恶霸威胁着世界,制造阴谋论,编造虚假的故事,肆无忌惮地撒谎时... 那么这就是一项艰巨的任务。客观一点,看看美国为了遏制中国的和平崛起,在过去几年里一直在做什么。

Adrian Dragomir
I don’t get one thing… China is Australia’s biggest trading partner (they buy whatever the Australians extract from their huge unpopulated landmass). So, Australia wants to use its future nuclear-powered submarines to protect the Chinese cargo ships from… China? …
My bet is the US just wanted to get the contract for its own military industrial complex and the UK simply joined in because the Afghanistan war is done, so they just needed brand new lucrative deals for their defense companies, because money and government lobbying. So, Australia is getting ripped off. They don’t even have nuclear facilities for nuclear fuel.

【回复】我不明白一件事... 中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴(他们购买澳大利亚人从其巨大的无人居住的陆地上开采的任何东西)。所以,澳大利亚希望利用其未来的核潜艇来保护中国的货船不受... 中国的攻击?...

Kenneth Milne
You nailed it right on the head. US subs, Built with US tech. and most likely maned by US personnel, controlled by the US. Paid for by Australia. Smartest move the Us has made for some time.


Oon Ban Cheah
This is just a smoke screen for US military industries with UK tagged along to extract maximum benefit from Australia. By the time they call it quits, Australia will have paid huge amount of money for something that do not fit what was expected. Biden, Johnson and Morrison will be retired happily from politics and provide some bullshit for excuses. China will make noise appropriately and enjoy the show. Meanwhile, China will be looking out for any opportunity that may be of interest.


Adrion VII
And the Anglo alliance sold out France for that. Then wonder why their European “allies” no longer follow them.


Kenneth Milne
You can say the UK is also a shadow of its past and it is possible the Us will follow in their footsteps sometime in the future as they already appear to be in decline.


George Palanna
When Britain lost India without firing one bullit And also from a man who never held a gun leave alone firing told British to leave they were so afraid they left


Maddey Steve
And in all this, Boris Johnson, since Brexit is banking on a major lucrative trade deal with……China. It cannot start any better. Good luck Boris.

【回复】在在这一切中,鲍里斯·约翰逊,因为脱欧正指望着达成一项重要的利润丰厚的贸易协定... 与中国。这是最好的开局。祝你好运鲍里斯。

Peter Charles
well, many Aussies (like myself) are just as shocked and alarmed about this arrangement as is everyone else. We are supposed to be a non nuclear country ,why the government making these huge decisions without consultation is not right at all.


Emilios Aristidis
I am of the personal belief that with these actions, the USA is trying to create a mess which never existed in the first place and let others clean it. Australia was supposed to get 12 French diesel submarines which some of them later would become nuclear powered. As of this moment, Australia is forced to wait another 20 years the least for 8 nuclear powered submarines, and for what? I think this deal may proceed to make Australia a nuclear power, which would piss of Iran, North Korea possibly and others waiting in the line.


Jason Ko
You really CAN'T have France in the Picture .. So terribly Sorry.
It would make it FAUKUS ..

【回复】你真的不能把法国放在这画面里... 非常抱歉。

Patrick Weaver
AUKUS seems to be designed to help Boris Johnson (UK) and Scott Morrison (Aus.) out of politically troubling situations of their own making. There is absolutely nothing real about the ‘alliance’ as yet.


K Buck
Spoken like a person who works for a Chinese company.
Your social reliability score improved 3 points.


Brian Coughlan
I don’t work for a Chinese company. I get this quite a lot so let me set you straight.
You’re thinking of Volvo Cars which is wholly owned by Geely and sold off in 2010 or thereabouts.
I work for Volvo Trucks which is a Swedish company.
Not that I’d particularly mind, it’s just not factually correct. So, anything else you’re wrong about I can help to correct?


Philip Tan
The formation of the Anglo-saxons projects to the world they want to claim past glories. The world must reject them altogether.


Jonathan Williams
AUKUS is about China. Its about money, get real. Australia gets a few new toys and UK and American contractors get money. The end. Anything else is window dressing.


Wee Kang Lee
Australia is so far away from China to have any territorial dispute and currently China is buying up 30+% of Australia’s GDP, where is the threat from China coming from? That Australia unilaterally picks China as threat and adversary and continually harass China, incurring China wrath only to respond appropriately. Hiw insane and stupid can Scott Morrison and his bunch of equal idiots be??


Jamie Wang, Born and raised in China, had lived in Swiss and Germany
After reading into details about the submarine order, I realized that there is a possibility, maybe not high though, that AUS will end up with nothing:
* What AUS wants are middle sized attack submarines with 3000 to 4000 tonnages.
* What the US and UK have are Los Angeles-class and Astute-class, which both have around 7000 tonnages.
Basically, the US and UK don’t even have a proper type for AUS. They need to develop a new one from scratch.
And it would be not a very good idea for AUS to have Los Angeles-class or Astute-class, since they would appear being to expensive to build and to maintain.
It took France a longer period than expected to re-design Barracuda-class just to install a diesel system and to fit American weapons. I cannot even imagine the period to re-design a totally new submarine.

* 澳大利亚需要的是3000吨到4000吨的中型攻击潜艇。
* 而美国和英国拥有的是洛杉矶级和机敏级核潜艇,两者的吨位都在7000吨左右。

In addition, if AUS really obtained its nuclear submarine, China wouldn’t be the one which reacting the most, Indonesia will be. Australia-Indonesia maritime boundary would not be a good example for the region should Canberra and Jakarta be unable to resolve “technical amendments”.
If Five Eyes is good enough, why do they need an AUKUS?
If Five Eyes is not eough, what makes the US think that AUKUS could make a difference?
All these EYES and alliances are just an icon to remind allies of the US that they are not the same nor equal. Some are more important than others.


Jerome Wei Liang
Informative analysis. Thanks.
I wonder if Indonesia will feel compelled to upgrade its anti-submarines capabilities and submarine fleet?
Also, if China would upgrade Argentina's military hardwares as a response to UK's encroachment?


Yohanes Evan
In time, I believe Indonesia will do it.


Trevor Hansen
Reality is Morrison has fucked up with building quarantine facilities, failed in bringing thousands of Aussies home and failed with vaccine purchases.
He will loose the next election.
This is just a distraction.
Check out Boris Johnston… he is in more danger.
he will loose the next election.
Check out Biden… he does not know which country he is president of… or when the next election is.
Now look at the time frame… 10 to 20 years to get these subs..
Hello China..We are going to build some subs because we think you might attack us… Please… can you wait for 10 or 20 years.. Please..Please.
Australia is a joke. Our government is a joke.
The “Western World” still thinks it is the major world, but reality is every day other countries look at Australia, the US, the UK and see us as a joke.

看看鲍里斯·约翰逊... 他更危险。
看看拜登... 他甚至不知道自己是哪个国家的总统... 也不知道下次选举是什么时候。
现在看看时间框架... 10到20年才能得到这些潜艇...
你好,中国... 我们打算建造一些潜艇,因为我们认为你们可能会攻击我们... 所以拜托... 你们能等上10年或20年吗... 求你了... 求你了。

China is the peaceful future of the world and only interested in enhancing trade.
The big problem is China is about to surpass the US as the major power economically and militarily, the US sees this coming.. and the US and it’s lap dogs like Morrison are too stupid to realise that the days of the US being the world leader are already long gone.
But the kick backs of money from weapons makers keeps the west going.
When China organises alternative iron ore supplies, when China stops all imports from Australia…
Then Australians… yes I am one… we will be sewing up T-shirts to try to export to China.
How fucked up has Morrison made Australia.
How fucked up has Murdoch’s Media fucked Australians.

最大的问题是,中国即将超越美国,成为经济和军事上的大国,美国看到了这一点... 而美国以及像莫里森这样的哈巴狗太蠢了,以至于没有意识到美国作为世界领导者的日子早已一去不复返。
然后是澳大利亚人... 是的,我就是其中一员... 我们将缝制T恤,尝试出口到中国。

But Morrison must follow Murdoch’s hate for China… to get support for the next election.
… and with all the bullshit about China’s aggression… check out where China has military bases outside China… NONE.
All fake News.
All bullshit…. spending billions of dollars on weapons for a peaceful neighbour just to lick the US arse.
Wake up Australians… and think…allow this to happened your kids will pay for a generation to come.
Your kids need your support.

但是,莫里森必须追随默多克对中国的恨... 以获得下一次选举的支持。
...还有那些关于中国侵略的胡说八道... 看看中国在中国以外的地方有哪些军事基地... 没有。
全是狗屁... 为一个和平的邻国花费了数十亿美元购买武器,只是为了讨好美国。
醒醒吧,澳大利亚人... 然后想想... 允许这种事情发生,你的孩子将为未来的一代人付出代价。

Roy Yu
Hopefully more Australians share your opinion. China was never the Enemy and trade between both countries prospered Australia big time. Australia has been trying hard to make an enemy out of China. Now it’s a bit too late to reverse the trend.


Herve Babey
You sum it all up perfectly
All bullshit…. spending billions of dollars on weapons for a peaceful neighbour just to lick the US arse.
Purchasing and building the French subs was already a stupid decision : the French subs were designed to be nuclear and they wanted a diesel-électrique retrofit (means lengthy design), they wanted to manufacture most of them by themselves starting from zero experience, they wanted to arm them with US electronics and weapons. All these risks for what? There is no risk for Australia coming from China. China is just concerned by the sea of China, by the American bases surrounding this sea
Now Australia corrected this wrong purchase by an even more stupid decision: purchasing offensive nuclear subs from US that will be served by American experts, and they will be de facto involved in a Cold War or a US war against China, at their expense but for the industrial benefit of Americans

全是狗屁... 为一个和平的邻国花费了数十亿美元购买武器,只是为了讨好美国。

Stephen Bradfords
It is difficult to get the west in Aus to understand you.
China is going for Common Prosperity which mean it require Companies and Rich Chinese to spread out to help the rural people (who are generally poorer Chinese), to bring jobs to them, to incr the wages paid to the rural people. This is very good for China. But The West cannot accept this because it is like taxing the rich to help the poor or forcing a sector of the people to do things they do not naturally or wish to do, which means lost of human rights!
With regard to this purchase of Nuclear Subs, Aus will be considered as China’s Adversary. China will have to stop any kind of “help”, trade or non trade, to Aus. Going forward there will be lesser and lesser trade betw them.


On the subject of Nuclear Subs, China should also reply this threat. China should sell Nuclear Subs to Iran, N Korea, Indonesia, Argentina and Pakistan.
The world is getting more and more dangerous.


Kow Teng Wong
This is an alliance of one slightly dementia case geriatric with two incompetent clowns.


William Kennedy
To me, as a Canadian, this deal appears to simply be a way to dump used and out-of date submarines on an unsuspecting victim. Canada has already had a similar experience in buying used submarines from Britain. Ask the experts how that overly expensive financial fiasco ended. ScotMo is going to wind up with a broken nose if Biden does a quick left turn.


Jamie Wang
No No No, my friend.
AUS cannot afford LA-Class nor Astute-class because they are way too big and powerful for AUS military. It needs a middle sized submarine, which the US and UK may have to design from scratch.


Dylan Hung
US did that to Taiwan all the time, with not only outdated but also rusted gun pipes on 18 of 23 F26s. What a joke.


Michael Gipp
The real reason they had to kick the French out of this grouping is that with France, their acronym was FUKUS, and that just would not do.


Jamie Wang
W…WHAT? I never thought about that, and I have to say that you really got a point…
FUKUS [fʌkʌs] does not only sound bad, but also… FUK US…

【作者回复】什... 什么?我从没这样想过,而且我不得不说你说得很有道理...
FUKUS [fʌkʌs]不仅听起来很糟糕,而且听起来还像... FUK US(操我们)

Andrew Low
All these posturing will come to nothing in the next election if Scot lose and / or Biden will not go for a second term. The only beneficiary is the military industrial complex that has another customer to con with used goods!


Jamie Wang
The US and UK don’t even have proper technology for 3000 tonnage nuclear submarine, so there is a high possibility that they need to develop one from scratch, which means high cost and long period. It’s not totally impossible that AUS would have nothing at the end.
Plus, selling nuclear submarine to AUS will firstly piss off Indonesia, since they really have disputes.
It’s like when news used to say the US planning to sell 100 F22s to Japan back in 2006. China didn’t react much, but South Korea was furious. Obviously selling F22 to Japan was to against China and Russia, but South Korea sensed more threat.

这就像2006年有消息说美国计划向日本出售100架F22战斗机。中国没有做出多大反应,但韩国对此表示愤怒。很明显,卖 F22给日本是为了对抗中国和俄罗斯,但是韩国感觉到了更大的威胁。

Gabi Dipla
This is not a defensive organization, it's offensive by nature. A more fitting name for it is “Axis “.
As for its purpose, it won't manage to contain China because China's rise is economically, military and culturally.


Stuart Emmanuel
If China were so confident why are they so upset about Australia getting nuclear power subs? Becoz they know they can't win against those subs, and there's no counter to them.


HS Shukur
If Australia gets nuclear submarines, Indonesia will seriously start to look for nuclear submarines too. Soon, China and Indonesia will be bff and the rest of Asean will be fuming that the US has turned our sepak takraw playing fields into a nuclear zone. Good Old US is shooting its own foot again.


Jamie Wang
Exactly. After a bit more study into this, I realized that Indonesia would feel threatened once AUS obtained nuclear submarines.


David Whaley
The main reason to go SSN vs SSK is loiter time and speed. Power projection. SSKs, on the other hand, can be quieter than nuclear subs when running on batteries, and an economical choice for a littoral defensive navy.
The major strategic ramification of nuclear subs for Convict Island is that they can scoot up to the SCS more rapidly or go out into the Pacific and IO and do shipping interdiction more readily. If those are strategic capabilities that Indonesia needs or desires, they might undertake the expense….but I don’t see why they would.

核潜艇 vs 常规潜艇的主要区别是航行的时间和速度。力量投射。另一方面,常规潜艇在使用电池时比核潜艇更安静,是沿海防御性海军的经济选择。
对于罪犯岛来说,核潜艇的主要战略结果是,它们可以更快地进入南海,或者进入太平洋和印度洋,更容易地进行航运拦截。如果这些是印尼需要或渴望的战略能力的话,他们可能就会承担这笔费用... 但我不明白他们为什么会这么做。

Jennifer Mora
As an Australian, I’m embarrassed to death by the stupidity of our Government. I didn’t vote to become part of the US (the world’s principal aggressor) or Britain (a country in decline). And like many Australians, I have Chinese family members. I’m so angry with our so-called leaders.


Claudius De Vries
China announced that they may now undertake right of passage flights with their airforce over Taiwan that is their airspace technically.
They will not be intimidated by this Tri alliance it seems


Emilios Aristidis
So since Australia is under no direct military threat against anyone and China is its main business partner, why proceed to all this trouble in the first place? Had Australia stayed with the French contract, they could have had submarines by now and possibly 12 within a decade. But now they want 8 nuclear powered submarines, when France was probably willing to make a few of those submarines nuclear powered and now forced to wait 20 years to get its hand on super expensive toys without any use for them. I don’t understand this move, other than just showing off. Money literally gone to waste.


Jennifer Mora
We need to cool down. But I don’t think the US knows how to.


Andrew Ang
If something works, more works better.
Looking at China hopping up and down, well done, QUAD, 5EYE and Aukus.
Good bye, China.


Jamie Wang
My oh my.
“If something works, more works better.”
It surely works like a charm.
And if the US would form another 3 eyes with CA and NZ called CANZU, it could double American’s military power, right?
Another one with CA and UK, called CAUKU. More power!
Another one with UK and NZ, called NZUKU (sounds African). More power!
Another one with CA and AU, called AUCAU. More power!
I mean, WTF hahahaha.


Nathan James Geopolitical pundit and blogger.
AUKUS isn’t powerful enough to contain China. War with China is a very, very bad idea.
China wouldn’t start a war in any case. China would defend itself if attacked. That’s the only way there would be war.
China hasn’t fought a single war in the last 42 years, since 1979. Contrast this with USA’s wars in the same time period:
* Afghanistan
* Bosnia
* El Salvador
* Grenada
* Iran
* Iraq
* Kuwait
* Lebanon
* Libya
* Nicaragua
* Pakistan
* Panama
* Somalia
* Sudan
* Syria
* Yemen
* etc.
BTW, UK, Australia, and Canada also participated in many of these wars.
Instead of invading Afghanistan after USA’s withdrawal, China has been negotiating diplomatically with the Taliban.
Instead of bombing the shit out of the Middle East, China has been making diplomatic overtures throughout the region.
China is doing everything it can to avoid war. Not so with the AUKUS nations.

* 阿富汗
* 波斯尼亚
* 萨尔瓦多
* 格林纳达
* 伊朗
* 伊拉克
* 科威特
* 黎巴嫩
* 利比亚
* 尼加拉瓜
* 巴基斯坦
* 巴拿马
* 索马里
* 苏丹
* 叙利亚
* 也门
* 等等。

West Du, lives in Australia (2008-present)
Good news:
It’s gonna be so powerful!!! Nuclear subs for us finally!!! As a Chinese Australian, I am so hyped!!! Yes, it’s gonna cost us some money, lose our reputations with Frenchies, suspend the FTA with EU, but WE HAVE NUCLEAR SUB :) BITE ME.As long as we could piss off China, it’s a BIG WIN for us.
Bad news: "Them subs will be delivered by approx. 2035”Me: ………..so what do we do before that“Well, the Yanks gonna have our backs”Me: ………..I mean, what about our economy? Trade with the EU, with China and whatnot“Well……I will have the next PM answer that question….and this press conference is adjourned. Cheers, fellas down under”Me: …………………

这会变得非常强大!!!我们终于有核潜艇了!作为一个澳大利亚华人,我太兴奋了!!!是的,这将花费我们一些钱,损失我们与法国的声誉,暂停与欧盟的自由贸易协定,但是我们有核潜艇了哦 :) 来咬我啊。只要我们能激怒中国,这对我们来说是一个大胜利。
“嗯... 我会让下一任总理回答这个问题... 新闻发布会到此结束。干杯,澳大利亚的兄弟们。”

Allan Kay, Ardent Geopolitical Observer
Why is there a need to contain China? Is there a fear that the US$ may be worth less than toilet tissues?


Craig Johnston
Put it this way, the Chinese could not defeat these three nations all at once, and so they will not be starting a war with us anytime soon.


Lance Chambers
No nuclear nation will start a war with another nuclear nation and both the US and China ARE nuclear nations. The reason they will not go to war is because even a simple mistake could see, pretty much, our lives turn back the clock by a few hundred years.


Craig Johnston
You think they negotiating diplomatically with Afghanistan isn't a cause for concern? It seems like if anybody is going to start a war, it’s them and not us.


Nathan James
You must’ve missed the part where I said, “China hasn’t fought a single war in the last 42 years, since 1979.”
China has proven its peaceful intentions.


Peter Webb
The problem is it invading Taiwan, as it has threatened to do.


Wenjie Piao, lived in The United States of America
So, you had a five eyes. now it's three.
as a physicists I'm not as good at math as I would like myself to be
but I know 3 is less than 5
Now, why would you expect this shit to be effective in doing something five eyes can't be?