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文章原始标题:If coronavirus has the potential to infect 100 million people in the United States, how can it be that the outbreak in China is already tapering off?


Sara Angell , Global Sales Segway Discovery at Segway Sales (2019-present)
Perhaps some countries don't think they acted quickly enough to identify the seriousness of the epidemic. However, once identified, they wasted no time in locking down the city of Wuhan which is approximately 8500 sq km- a population similar to NYC or London.
This was during the time of Chinese New Year where many look forward to taking a break to visit their families.
But they put aside their desire to travel and see their families for the greater good of the community.
They worked hard to accomplish the goal of containing the virus.

Sara Angell ,赛格威销售(2019年至今)

They built 14 hospitals in a couple days. There were no zoning law disputes and voting on the best way to use the land or resources. They just built it.
Public transportation shut down.
Doctors walked miles to work each day because they had no other way to get there.
The healthy uploaded proof that they were not ill on Wechat. They could also detect the location of someone who had the coronavirus so they knew to stay away from that area.
Restaurants, stores, gyms, and most public places shut down.

他们在几天内建造了14家医院。 没有分区法律的纠纷,也没有关于如何最好地使用土地和资源的投票。他们就建起来了。

Everyone stopped working or worked from home. Manufacturing came to a halt.
Strict travel regulations were imposed.
People who needed to enter a food store or other public place still open were forced by authorities to allow their temperature to be taken before they could gain entry. If a fever was suspected, this information was uploaded into a public database.
Cities were sprayed down with disinfectant spray.
People wore masks and gloves.
Doctors were dressed from head to toe in protective clothing. The attire took so long to get in and out of that many forfeited a bathroom trip during their shift due to the long process of disrobing, disinfecting, and dressing again. Upon leaving the hospital, it took nearly an hour to undress and disinfect each doctor. Many doctors slept where they could…on floors or chairs still geared up to be ready to assist their patients.

医生们从头到脚都穿着防护服。这套防护服在进出时需要花很长时间,许多人在轮班期间因为花在消毒和重新穿衣的时间太长而没有上厕所的机会。离开医院后,医生花了将近一个小时脱掉衣服并给每个医生消毒。许多医生睡在他们可以睡的地方... 地板或椅子上,仍然准备好随时帮助他们的病人。

Upon returning to work, they did so slowly. Everyone was forced to keep a 1 meter distance. Lunch was ordered for the workers. Talking during lunch was not allowed. It was not uncommon to have a coworker's health status change on their Ali pay app from green(not infected) to red (infected). If they became red, the hospital would come, collect the infected, and deliver them to the hospital.
Disinfecting wipes were everywhere. Elevators or any surface that many would touch was covered in plastic wrap.
They changed laws without hesitation. There was no debating and very little finger pointing and blaming.
China halted the spread of the virus and bought us time to figure a plan of action…
And you know what we did?
We talked of hoaxes and building walls.

开始复工后,他们进行得很慢。 每个人都必须保持一米的距离。为工人们订了午餐。午餐时间不允许交谈。同事的健康状况从绿色(未感染)变成红色(感染)的情况并不少见。 如果它们变成红色,医院就会过来,集合感染者,并把他们送到医院。

Are we ready to follow in China's example or is our personal freedom more important than the greater good of all humanity?
Someone flagged this answer for plagiarism. My stance on this topic was developed through my own experiences working for a company based in Beijing. I have spoken in depth to my Chinese colleagues who have told me many stories. The only thing that could possibly need to be cited is the comment that we spoke of Building Walls and Hoaxes. Those comments came from President Donald Trump.

有人认为我的回答是抄袭。我对这个话题的立场是通过我在北京一家公司的工作经历形成的。我和我的中国同事进行了深入的交流,他们给我讲了许多故事。 唯一可能需要引用的是我们提到的建墙和恶作剧的评论。 这些评论来自唐纳德 · 特朗普总统。

Vishwa Ram , former Consultant (2015-2020)
If coronavirus has the potential to infect 100 million people in the United States, how can it be that the outbreak in China is already tapering off?
Because China is better than US in such matters.
Let me go a little further, US is worst than most of the countries I know of on this planet, in such matters.
However, once the China accepted it as a disease do you know what they have been doing since then?
They have barricaded the entire cities and villages, just the way you see in any zombie-hollywood-flick.

Vishwa Ram ,前顾问医生(2015-2020)

I am sure US has taken some measures but if people are still this casual, I do not think the seriousness has been passed down the line properly there.


Ryan Wang , lives in China
You may want to check the actions China took to fight the virus. Check the pandemic situtation in your place and actions your Gov took, then make your own conclusion about what is happening. To help you with that, here are some key information I think worth knowing.
* In China test is free, so people who think they are sick won't hide because of money.
* In China treatment for COVID-19 is free, so people who are sick would not say no for treatment because of money. (Announced the policy on Feb 7th 2020)
* In some areas of China, people who voluntarily go for a test and diagnosed with COVID-19 can get about an 1500 US dollar award, so people who are sick can be located sooner and be put in quarantine to avoid virus spread.

Ryan Wang ,生活在中国
你可能想要了解一下中国为对抗病毒所采取的行动。然后看看你所在地的大流行情况和你的政府采取的行动,然后对正在发生的事情做出你自己的结论。 为了帮助你,这里有一些我认为值得了解的关键信息。
* 在中国,检测是免费的,所以那些认为自己生病的人不会因为钱而选择隐瞒。
* 在中国,新冠病毒肺炎的治疗是免费的,所以生病的人不会因为钱而拒绝治疗。 (2020年2月7日公布的政策)
* 在中国的一些地区,自愿接受检测并被诊断为新型冠状病毒肺炎的人可以获得1500美元的奖励,因此生病的人可以更快地找到并被隔离起来,以避免病毒传播。

Robin Daverman , World traveler
This question is actually sad on so many levels.
Because somehow controlling this infectious disease became a political question in the US, not a public health question. It doesn’t have to “infect 100 million people”. In fact, you can stop it right here, right now. If you treat it as a public health question, then the solution is PAINFULLY SIMPLE - Everybody self-isolate for 3 weeks, and the communities without any outbreaks (which is probably 95% of the total) can re-open. Those communities with active cases (the remaining 5%) need to have all patients and all their close contacts treated and isolated. Then another 3 weeks, the country would be largely in the clear. That’s it!

Robin Daverman ,环球旅行者

Infectious disease is like a forest fire where the human bodies are the trees. If every tree builds a fire-defense zone around itself, i.e., 2 meters away from other people,, then the fire has no where to go and dies out. You can call it quarantine, shutdown, house arrest, dictatorship, whatever, but it’s meant to do one thing biologically - to enforce a “self-defense zone” for you against this virus. Defending yourself is defending your family, your friends, and your community. The average incubation time is 5 - 7 days, so a 3-week isolation would have identified 99.9% of those infected, so we can get them to treatment. That’s it. Hunker down for a couple of weeks to save your own life! This is simply how the biology works.

传染病就像一场森林大火,人的身体就是大树。 如果每棵树都在自己周围建立一个防火区,也就是说,离其他人2米远,那么火就无处可去了,然后就会熄灭。你可以称这为隔离,封锁,软禁,专政,无论如何,但从生物学上来讲,这意味着做一件事情——为你建立一个对抗这种病毒的“自卫区”。保护自己就是保护你的家庭,你的朋友和你的社区。平均潜伏时间为5-7天,因此三个星期的隔离可以确定99.9%的感染者,所以我们可以让他们接受治疗。就是这样。保持低调几个星期来拯救你自己的生命!这就是生物学的工作原理。

To see so many national governments flailing around, having bodies stacking up, and then eventually having to go do the hard quarantine anyway, is both sad and shocking. When this thing has been shown to work for hundreds of years, and China has once again shown that it still works. What the f*ck happened to our 12-year compulsory education? Are the average people no longer able to tell what’s objective, and what’s in your head? You can’t bullsh*t a virus! The virus doesn’t care about politics, ideology, or whatever you are thinking. It’s simply looking for bodies. Bodies nearby. To replicate itself. That’s all! In the year 2020, can these petty chieftains please have some respect for elementary biology?


Yao Zhan , Trader at Index Trading
Because China has a competent administration.
The virus was discovered something between Christmas and New Year, within the space of a few weeks, the central locked down the affected cities and fired the officials who failed to manage the issue by January. The govt also quickly build emergency hospitals and commanded hotels to house the sick and recovering patients.
Meanwhile, the US despite having two months warning didn’t make enough test kits let alone facemask, ventilators, prep its hospitals and medical centers and test centers to meet this problem. Americans leaders like Bloomberg spent over 900 million dollars on campaign ads. The rest of them seemed to spend that period mocking China.

Yao Zhan 指数交易所的交易员

WHO (the World Health Organisation) had a working test kit by January. The Trump administration chose to ignore it and build their own. Their own was faulty.
America also had a President who denied that the c19 virus was dangerous - he actually said it was no better or deadly than the flu. He also fired the govt medical group that had been setup to deal with such a crisis in 2018 and did not replace it even in this crucial period. Meanwhile, he lied that the US had enough test kits. He lied that the US had prep for the virus.


If I can use an analogy - imagine if your neighbor’s house caught on fire. So you watched as he struggled to fix the problem. You laughed at him because well, he belongs to a minority group. He knocked on your door to warn you about the fire. And you told him to get lost. Anyhow, soon after he put out the fire but it has spread to your backyard. You smell the smoke. But hey, you wanna watch that cute blonde chick on Fox News, so you IGNORE it. By late evening, the fire is inside your home. What do you do?
* Hope it burns itself out.
* Pray
* Blame your neighbour.
* Call it a hoax

如果我可以用一个类比——想象一下,如果你邻居的房子着火了。 然后你看着他努力解决这个问题,你开始嘲笑他,因为他属于少数群体。他敲你的门警告你有关火灾的事。你还叫他滚蛋。不管怎样,在他把火扑灭之后不久,火已经蔓延到你的后院了。 你闻到了烟味。 但是,嘿,你想看福克斯新闻上那个可爱的金发小妞,所以你无视它了。到了晚上,火已经烧到你家里了。 你做了什么?
* 希望它自己燃烧殆尽。
* 祈祷。
* 责怪你的邻居。
* 把它当做骗局。

Guess which options America chose. Answer: all of the above.
Meanwhile Fox News hasdbeen downplaying the flu since China warned this was a deadly serious virus in January 20th 2020.But hey, its “Jinas” fault for this too apparently. This is like being a Jew in Germany in the 1930s.
Anyhow, China imposed the right solutions to stop the epidemic from spreading. They locked down affected cities. They enforced quarantines. They punished people who broke the quarantines. And by and large the Chinese people also obeyed and complied with the rules. Now the hospital beds are empty and people are recovering. The WHO (World Health Organization) visited China and was impressed with the results. The sight of empty hospital beds and people going back to work is signs of life returning back to normal.

无论如何,中国采取了正确的解决方案,以阻止疫情的蔓延。他们封锁了受影响的城市。他们强制实行隔离措施。惩罚那些不遵守隔离的人。总的来说,中国人也遵守了这些规则。现在他们医院的病床空了,人们正在康复。世界卫生组织访问了中国,对结果印象深刻。 看到空荡荡的病床和人们重返工作岗位是生活恢复正常的标志。

Mary Krupka , B.A.History B.A. Art Hist History & Classical Period, Wayne State University
Because China took immediate action to close off Wuhan Province. They didn’t scream “its all fake news coming from the opposition” They isolated and treated everyone who showed up for treatment.
I would like to add here that China took heavy-handed measures to isolate the ill This is why the numbers are falling,nothing else. But we cannot adopt such measures.. These would not be acceptable in a free society. Here,we must rely on the good sense and humanity of our citizens to restrict the spread of the virus. And if people act responsibly and voluntarily quarantine themselves we should,in time,acheive the same results. But that was one Chinese province,not an entire country like the U.S. where people have been traveling freely for some time. Hope for the best but don’t expect it.

Mary Krupka ,B.A.History b.a. Art Hist History & Classical Period,韦恩州立大学
我想在这里补充一点,中国采取了严厉措施来隔离这种疾病,这就是为什么数字在下降,没有别的原因。但是我们不能采取这样的措施... 这在一个自由社会是不能接受的。在这方面,我们必须依靠我国人民的良好意识和人性来限制病毒的传播。如果人们采取负责任的行动,自觉隔离自己,我们应该也能达到跟中国一样的结果。但那只是中国的一个省份,而不是像美国那样的整个国家,那里的人们已经到处旅行一段时间了。 抱最好的希望,但不要期待。

I would also point out that apart from the elderly and ill, there are two other populations at risk in the U.S., which I strongly suspect will be very vunerable. They are prisoners and addicts. China does not have large numbers of incarcerated people. Or a drug culture. They have more basic ways of dealing with those people.
Now,you might callously say ”So what? No loss”. But this means the cops will be exposed to the virus. Court and corrections personnel, lawyers, first responders when these people get hurt..
Should you be arrested and put in holding you are going to be sharing space with these people.
I’ve seen posts saying the death rate is only 1%. It isn’t. That is a best case scenario. Its at least 3.5. In Italy it’s in the double digits because everyone thought it was”just like flu”. Because of this masses of people became ill at one time, overwhelming the hospitals and health system. The doctors and nurses had got sick, too. With caretakers in short supply it’s not surprising Italy’s death rate soared.
Yes, it IS a big deal. Don’t panic but don’t brush it off either. And just remember a virus can mutate. It could get worse.

现在,你可能会无情地说: “那又怎样?又没什么损失”。 但这意味着警察会暴露在病毒之下。 当这些人受伤时的第一接触者,是法庭、管教人员,律师...
我看到过一些帖子说死亡率只有1% 。但并非如此,这是最好的情况。至少是3.5%。在意大利,死亡率已经是两位数,因为每个人都认为这就像流感一样。正因为如此,大量的人在同一时间生病,使医院和卫生系统不堪重负。医生和护士也生病了。由于护理人员短缺,意大利的死亡率飙升也就不足为奇了。

Oso Panda
The genie is out the bottle and cannot be put back in….
If you look at local Italian news you can see that the major centre of outbreak is in the North of the country. At least 3–4 military bases located in epicentre.
South Korea. Centre of most serious outbreak is NOT is Seoul but in Dague where there is a huge military base.
Spain. Centre of outbreaks in Madrid…surrounded by at least 6–7 military bases. La Rioja, has 2 military bases. Andalucia, second hardest hit has 2 huge bases.
Germany. Outbreak centred around Ansbach in North. Another huge military base.

Oso Panda
西班牙。爆发中心在马德里... 至少有6到7个军事基地。拉里奥哈有2个军事基地。第二重灾区安达卢西亚,有2个巨大的基地。

Nicolas Lee (木下 くん) , He Used to Be a History Professor(2011-present)
Covid-19 is very harmful and an enemy of all humanity. This enemy is very fair to humanity. As long as you don't pay attention to it, promoting it is tantamount to a pandemic and promoting "universal immunity."
He must make you die ugly.
The Chinese government, the Chinese people, and Chinese medical staff have made huge sacrifices and controlled the virus (at least for now, and China is also facing tremendous pressure from increasing imported cases from abroad), and defeating the virus may not necessarily be It will strengthen China's image. After all, world opinion is not on the Chinese side.

Nicolas Lee (木下 くん) ,曾经是一名历史教授(2011年至今)
新冠病毒非常有害,是全人类的敌人。 这个敌人对人类非常公平。只要你不注意它,而是宣传它只是大流行病,宣传“群体免疫”
中国、中国人民和中国医务人员做出了巨大牺牲,控制了病毒(至少目前是这样,而且中国还面临着来自国外输入病例增加的巨大压力) ,击败病毒未必能提升中国的形象。毕竟,世界舆论并不站在中国一边。

However, the virus must significantly reduce the image of Westerners, "all people gain immunity," and the number of people infected with the virus has skyrocketed.
In the past, you could not imagine that Singapore would criticize European countries, nor could the Thai Minister criticize Europeans and Americans, and even Vietnamese society began to criticize Europeans and Americans without masks.
Europeans and Americans developed technology, colonized the world for hundreds of years, and established a strong, civilized, and wealthy image of Europeans and Americans. This image has been further strengthened in countries outside Europe and the United States.


When these developing countries followed Europe and the United States, they had overly beautiful fantasies about everything in Europe and America. In their view, Europe and the United States will completely surpass themselves. This is actually a spiritual totem.
Just like the Japanese went to Paris for the first time, they were usually disappointed or even frustrated because their hearts did not fit their perfect image. There is a term "Paris syndrome" specifically describing this phenomenon.
In other words, the image of Europe and the United States is overvalued, and Europeans and Americans have obtained excess returns through such high valuations. Covid-19 enables him to restore image.
On QUORA and YOUtube in February, many kind Chinese people sent out kind reminders. On QuORA, I saw a primary school principal insisting on holding a concert in the presence of Covid-19. I reminded the principal that Covid-19 is terrible and the concert must be canceled so that children are not exposed to the virus. But he didn't believe me, because their government media told them that the virus would only spread among middle-aged and elderly people, and young people and children would not be easily infected. (He is a caring principal, and I believe it is in their country. The media didn't tell him how terrible the virus was)


He thought I should get the data, so I got the data of three children infected with the virus from a Chinese institution.
In the end, he gave me a reply. He didn't consider my data to be credible, because it was China's data, not their country's data.
I am a businessman doing business in Amazon, and I want to say that in any country in the world, there are good people and bad people.

最后,他给了我一个答复。 他认为我的数据不可信,因为这是中国的数据,而不是他们国家的数据。

If the Chinese government does not do well, the Chinese government will also be blamed by the Chinese people. If the Chinese government does well enough, you will also hear praise in China.
There are 1.3 billion Chinese in China, and China has a highly developed Internet and social media. 1.3 billion eyes looked at the Chinese government. If the Chinese government does a good job, the Chinese can actually see it.
I hope everyone can take it seriously, I have experienced Covid-19 before and don't wait until your admission to cause fear of this virus.
The above opinions are derived from my personal experience and only represent my personal opinions.


Fabrice Allais , French, I live in the US, I know Math, Physics, History...
To answer your question, you have to know a little bit about Mathematical epidemiology. Cov19 has a R0=2.2–2.7 meaning that in average an infectious individual infects 2.2–2.7 other people. R0 is a function of both the virus and human behaviour.To kill an epidemic, you need to bring back R0 to values below 1. It can be done through vaccination or quarantine. The Chinese just did it and it worked.Democracies with their liberty cult and individual rights are by essence doomed. Epidemics are a community event and cannot be stopped if we keep individual interests first. The multitude of opinions makes the decision process impossible. It is not only due to the political game. Look at what happened last year with the Measles epidemics.Vaccination is not about saving individuals. It is about reducing R0 below 1 to save the community.

Fabrice Allais 法国人住在美国,懂数学,物理,历史..

Cov19 epidemics and its cortege of sorrow and economic disasters could be stopped in 15 days. Force quarantine the whole population. Nobodies out but the army, cops, food delivery and medical services.
15 days later you can quarantine only the persons who got sick and the World is saved.Update: Iran is precisely implementing these measures today.


Paul Clifford
China took a month to realise they had a new virus on their hands and then went into overdrive to contain it. Also, whilst China is just a little larger than the USA, the contagion was limited to just a couple of regions.
In contrast, the Trump administration downplayed the virus, as if the USA populace would be immune to it! Consequently, the last I heard covid-19 has spread to 48 states of the USA, and because Trump did not adequately fund the procurement and distribution of test kits, nobody knows how many carriers there are in the USA, and the number of carriers increases with each infection.

Paul Clifford

Mike Winslade
If coronavirus has the potential to infect 100 million people in the United States …
Covid-19 has the potential to infect 327 million people in the USA.
… how can it be that the outbreak in China is already tapering off?
Because China literally slammed the door on the infected and then welded it shut. Along with building thousand-bed field hospitals almost overnight.
Whereas the rugged individualists in the USA have taken little in the way of top-down unilateral action. Messages from authorities have been mixed and medical supplies are running low.

Mike Winslade
因为中国简直就是把感染者锁起来了,然后焊上。 与此同时,几乎一夜之间就建成了上千张病床的野战医院。

Sam Zbib , Engineer, Observer, Skeptic
I don’t know where the 100 million figure comes from.
this assumes that people gain immunity or something like that that was never proven, although it is obvious that the virus does not require person to person contact. Instead Infections can happen by simply accessing the same facilities at different time or by breathing recirculated air. so if your town become like 20% infected, you can be assured of becoming infected if you visit the supermarket or clinic etc… worst case is really 330 million +
The other issue is that the 1% death is not true. It is more like 10% if you account for age groups and People with various pre-existing conditions and compromised / over stressed health care workers and facilities.

Sam Zbib 工程师,观察家,怀疑论者
这是假设人们获得了免疫力,或者类似的东西,这从未被证实过,尽管很明显病毒不需要人与人之间的接触。相反,只要在不同时间进入同一设施或呼吸循环空气,就可能发生感染。所以如果你所在的城市有20%的人被感染了,那么你去超市或者诊所等地方,你肯定也会被感染... 最坏的情况是3亿3千万以上的感染数。
另一个问题是1%的死亡率是不正确的。如果考虑到年龄组和有各种基础疾病的人,以及压力过大的医护人员和医疗设施,这个比例更接近10% 。

the outbreak was stopped in China due to many factors, some more important than other:
* political establishment overriding myriad of conflicting interests: business, politics, cultural etc.. in favor of scientific assessment. It is a huge and historic undertaking to shut down overnight a country of 1.4 billion and imprison 60 millions in their homes. It’s what it they needed to do.
* Enlisting the resources of public sectors in the fight, including for example retooling State owned enterprises to the manufacturing of materials for protective equipment, allocating health care workers from less impacted areas. In contrast, Trump cuts taxes and tells governors to find ventilators on their own.

在中国,由于许多因素(其中一些因素比其它因素更为重要) ,所以疫情得以停止:
* 政治机构凌驾于商业、政治、文化等各种利益冲突之上,有利于科学评估。一夜之间让一个拥有14亿人口的国家关闭,并让6千万人在家中隔离,这是一项巨大的历史性任务。这是他们需要做的。
* 动员公共部门的资源参与这场战斗,包括例如对国有企业进行重组,以制造防护设备材料,从受影响较小的地区分配医护人员。相比之下,特朗普削减税收,并告诉州长们自己去找呼吸机。

* Deploying the resources to test the population on a massive scale. China now ramped up production to several millions test kit a day. The private sector in US. Won’t step to the plate because no one want a short term investment. This can only be done by a government.
so having said that, the 100 million infections is a surrender by criminal politicians that only know to deal with problems by dropping bombs on other people or locking them up in jails. Shame on them.
This surrender will live in infamy for the ages.

* 调配资源来大规模检测人们。中国现在已经提高了产量,每天可以生产几百万个检测试剂。美国的私营部门,不会采取行动,因为没有人想要短期投资。这只能由政府来做。

Floyd Mills , studied at Georgia State University
Everyone in China has a mask. BECAUSE China has a huge and powerful manufacturing capacity that can produce billions of masks on short order. They can make temporary hospitals with 1000 beds in 2 weeks. They can send 4000 physicians to Wuhan to help in a matter of days. They can produce whatever they need such as ventilators very rapidly. They can produce millions of virus test kits. This gives them the tools they need. That is at least a big part of the story. Here in the US even health care workers do not have masks.
Think about it. 300 million Americans could be wearing masks. That would help. But they have to change their masks at least once a day. Maybe if they only use them when they go out to buy food they will only need one ever 5 days. But in 60 days that’s 3.6 billion masks. 3M is only capable of supplying 5% of those needed masks. Where will the others come from?

Floyd Mills ,就读于佐治亚州立大学
想想吧。如果3亿美国人能戴着口罩。那将会有帮助的。但他们必须每天至少更换一次口罩。也许如果他们只在出去买食物的时候戴上,那么他们也要5天更换一次。在60天内,那就是要用掉36亿个口罩。3M公司只能提供所需口罩的5%。 其他口罩从哪里来?

Mats Andersson , Professional Translator English into Swedish (1991-present)
Because China did something about it.
Most other countries are, in various ways, trying to emulate what the Chinese did.
The US is engaging in American Exceptionalism, and people who could have done something about it first insisted that it could never happen in the US, then insisted that it wasn’t actually happening in the US, and are now saying that it will stop happening of its own accord in the US.

Mats Andersson,专业翻译者,英语到瑞典语(1991年-至今)