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文章原始标题:Why is India unable to replace China as the "world factory"?

内容简介:印度有机会在低估值、低成本、低工资、低技术含量、低技能等制造业方面取代中国,因为中国正将所有这些制造业形式输出到印度、巴基斯坦、越南和其他东南亚国家。 他们甚至把那些生产这些类型产品的中国企业送走。几

India has a chance to replace China in low-valued, low-cost, low-wage, low-tech, low-skilled, etc. manufacturing since China is sending all those forms of manufacturing out of China to India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and other SE Asian nations. They are even sending Chinese owned businesses who manufacture those types of products away.
A few years ago the Western press suggested this was ‘foreign corporations fleeing China’. but that is simply false.
China is moving upmarket into high-tech, high-profit, high-wage, etc. manufacturing.
They have published and made available a manifesto called Made in China 2025!
You may remember when trump was told about the impact that MiC2025 would have on China he, literally, told XI to stop passing out copies of the plan, to shut everything down, and to never talk about it again. Xi was talking to his cat at the time and didn’t hear a word of trump rant. The evidence of what I stated is obvious because China implemented it 2 years or so ago.

Lance Chambers 澳大利亚科廷大学 商业学士 (1982年)
印度有机会在低估值、低成本、低工资、低技术含量、低技能等制造业方面取代中国,因为中国正将所有这些制造业形式输出到印度、巴基斯坦、越南和其他东南亚国家。 他们甚至把那些生产这些类型产品的中国企业送走。几年前,西方媒体认为这是“外国公司逃离中国” ,但这完全是错误的。中国正在向高科技、高利润、高工资等制造业转移。

There is a wealth of evidence that MiC2025 will propel China into the future far more effectively than any other country.India is good and is growing but it will not, if ever, surpass China.
I understand that Indians are very very proud of their country and they should be proud but they lack so many of the necessary attributes


The following conditions need to be.met to become world factory.
Abundant and unlimited supply of power and clean water.
Availability of land without hassles and litigation.
Abundant supply of highly skilled labour
High calibre design capability
Capability to produce goods at globally competitive cost and quality.
Abundant supply of raw material to manufacture any product.
Ability to think big and build industries with mind boggling capacity. For instance, a garment unit with 25000 machines or a weaving factory with 10000 air jet looms.
World class infrastructure
Highly disciplined and productive labour.
Absence of activists.
Ability to build capital machinery capable of producing anything from biscuits to jet aircraft.
Possession of own technology instead of licence to produce in every sector.
India doesn't satisfy any of the above.

Balachandran Krishnamoorty 前管理会计师
能够以惊人的能力宏观思考和建立产业集群。 例如,拥有25000台机器的制衣厂或拥有10000台喷气织机的织布厂。

I’m answering based on things that I remember reading about. Not researched. Major companies have had problems with getting title to land to build factories.There are taxes when you transport material between different Indian states.The electrical grid is not reliable.Shortage of water.Traffic congestion delays any type of transportation.Feel free to correct me if I am wrong about these issues.

Thomas Bar 关注印度

uttar pradesh formed economic task force to attract companies eyeing a manufacturing shift from China and “Von wellex”(a german shoemaker) decided to shift its entire manufacturing chain from china to UP.
The main reason why china has advantage is the fact that they are able to bend their laws on a deal-to-deal basis. Take tesla as a example. India is willing to provide facilities but changing laws like china is not feasible. Von wellex decided to shift its chain after uttar pradesh changes its labour laws.
This question is nothing but a troll question. It’s timing with the series of events occuring explains it all.
Rest ahead, if india is able to become world factory in future, china will say that we are eyeing for tertiary sector not manufacturing.

Gagan Singh 在印度生活
中国之所以具有优势的主要原因在于,他们能够在交易的基础上变通他们的法律。以特斯拉为例,印度愿意提供设施,但像中国这样改变法律是做不到的。 在北方邦修改了劳动法之后,冯 · 韦莱克斯决定改变它的供应链。


It’s totally reasonable question and doesn’t look like a troll question at all.

Yumico Nart

I’m just concerned with the timing. Morever, india do not hold any moral obligation to replace china as world factory. As far as i know, india has not shown any interest in becoming world factory. The main focus of india is to achieve self-reliance.

(作者)Gagan Singh

Concerned with the timing? Yes, Indian government lately has been making policies to attract foreign investments but seem to hinder China. Indian government is choosing this. If you pay attention to business news lately, you would know.

Yumico Nart


Hi there,
YES,India could to replace china as a world factory This Above statement is false and following factor are responsible are as follows
Some environmental factor- because placing new big industry need land many resources which India is focused and many norms for new companies to make the work to reduce pollution.
Self employment- India is more focused on self employment and developing new enterprise which could help new industry to get easy vendor market for production.
Demography- India is a big country with different religion and state which ruled by their own leader most of them have focused own entrepreneurship but only few are their which could create problem.
labor market- India is the key player in labor market they have both Skilled as well as Unskilled labor.
Power plants -India is the 3rd largest electricity producers in world and increasing as the new nuclear power plant are stabilizing.
This are some fact i want to share.

Ankit Ramaiya 作家


5. Power Plants. But is it the norm that you will have reliable power 24/7/365 on an industrial scale?

Thomas Bar

Yes sir you are right but As of March 2018, India has 22 nuclear reactors in operation in 7 nuclear power plants, with a total installed capacity of 6,780 MW. Nuclear power produced a total of 35 TWh . and many are developing .

(作者)Ankit Ramaiya


India can replace China as a world factory. In India, the MSME sector is high, manufacturing and Entrepreneurship are higher.
Yes, it will take time for the want of more space, land, and labor. Also, we need new technology for industrialization, but w have educated manpower too. China’s area as a country is 3 times larger than India, this is the only benefit today that China has for its production or manufacturing business.
On the other hand, India has a young population. We can sure give out the quality to the world.
Yes, the Government has also given out its stimulus package for the MSME. This is bigger boost.

Trupti Shah 外贸顾问(2013年至今)
另一方面,印度拥有年轻的人口。 我们一定能把质量展示给世界。

Why is India unable to replace China as the "world factory"?
Widespread political corruption
Corrupt judiary
Caste system causing social disparity
Inadequate infrastructure
Not a business friendly environment (see previous four items)

Paul Clifford
为什么印度不能取代中国成为“世界工厂” ?

There is nothing "world factory"!
Where are you living? In the “world kitchen” or the “world garage”?
If you are looking for races, you better go for horse or dog races than for economical races.

Bernd Hoffmann
没有什么“世界工厂” !
你住在哪里? “世界厨房”还是“世界车库” ?

India is unable to replace china as the world factory because indian found their own niches and china has theirs. India produces for itself. China is the opposite, ie export orientation. Outwardly, it looks like Vietnam is most likely to take over World factory but they tries still can’t. For some unknown reason, china got a special talents that they don’t. China should emulates India & becomes less dependent on the US market..

Harry Teo
印度无法取代中国成为世界工厂,因为印度找到了自己的利基市场,而中国也有自己的利基市场。印度给自己生产。 中国则恰恰相反。从表面上看,越南似乎最有可能接管世界工厂的地位,但他们仍然做不到。不知道为什么,中国有他们没有的特殊才能。 中国应该效仿印度,减少对美国市场的依赖..

Due to land policy and dozens of political partys who just know to oppose the things, doesent matter right or wrong for them

Vikram Talekar Patil 印度鲁尔克拉国家理工学院 理工硕士(2018)

Will you bet on a successively winning horse or a late-entry dark horse?

Ramkumar Natarajan

Even if we can do it, should we? India shouldn't be China's replacement. We should do our own thing. If other companies come and invest in us, we won't deny them but we shouldn't run after them.

Varun Venkatasubramanian

Yes, but it shall take a long time.
Maybe in another 7–10 years.

Trupti Shah

I don't see that happening. China itself is large enough for lower-end manufacturing to move towards the West. If manufacturing does move out of China, it will move to East Asia, from Bangladesh to Vietnam, to Cambodia

Umair Usman, 曾到印度出差
我不认为可以取代。中国本身足够大,低端制造业可以向西方转移。 如果制造业真的离开中国,它将转移到东亚,从孟加拉国到越南,再到柬埔寨。

To say these Things is like precipitateness. The effects will be seen after one or two years so one must wait. India is the only country which can replace China from being world factory hub as the any bussiness depends on demand and supply and being the huge market India in itself is the super consumption hub. Many companies are negotiating now a days with Indian states. So if companies will move from China they will surely look for india. Indian government making changes in the policies fastly like many Indian states easen the labour law, Indian government easen tax system, acquiring lands in advance and giving many incentives. So just weight what will happen don't be in hurry.

Rajeev Kumar Jaiswal
这样说有点仓促了。这些影响将在一两年后显现,所以必须等待。印度是唯一一个可以取代中国成为世界工厂的国家,因为任何商业都依赖于需求和供应,而作为一个巨大的市场,印度本身就是一个超级消费中心。目前,许多公司正在与印度各邦进行谈判。因此,如果企业将从中国转移,它们肯定会来寻找印度。 印度政府将像许多印度邦一样迅速改变政策,放松劳动法,放松税收制度,提前获得土地,并给予转移的企业许多奖励。 所以,只需权衡将要发生的事情,不要着急。

investment decisions do not happen overnight or on the fly, for any country to attract investment proper framework with practical policies, conducive environment and trust are most important things.
lagging infrastructure, no real investment in technological improvement, bureaucracy, too much paperwork, up-skill of resources, cost and quality of resources loosing global competitive edge, lack of religious harmony and governing style of knee jerk policy announcements overnight which may be an concern for big investors as they may be looked up risky if you end up on wrong side.

Vijay K, 前任副总裁(2016-2017)

Post COVID-19, many western powerhouse industries are looking for a stable supplier of the goods except China.
India wants to fill that gap by focusing on building the necessary infrastructure to boost manufacturing.
Indian MSME sector has the potential to build the products with good quality and less at less cost, considering the cheap labor availability in the country, Raw material availability and growing financial support from the government to boost the capacity through easy and secured lending.
If India could play to its strengths in fields like Medicine, Spices, Agricultural produce, IT and related technologies, Apparel Industry like Jeans manufacturing then it will be a good start for the new era.

Ganesh Thorat, ITC公司经理(2020-至今)

China did not become a global manufacturing powerhouse by fluke. China worked hard for over 3 decades and built the necessary manufacturing infrastructure to become the manufacturing leader in the world. China’s manufacturing output was 4 trillion US$. Whereas India’s manufacturing output was merely 403 billion US$. With an identical population size, India can not afford to be lagging behind in the manufacturing sector. Focus on manufacturing will not only give a boost to India’s GDP growth rate but also generate millions of jobs that India needs to produce so badly.
So, What can India do to replace China as a global manufacturing leader?
Well, the road ahead is tough and it will take more than 10 years to accomplish this task of becoming the manufacturing leader. You can’t just jump from 403 billion US$ to 4 trillion US$ in a matter of a decade.

Managed Homz 印度制造
中国并非侥幸成为全球制造业大国。 中国努力工作了三十多年,建立了必要的制造业基础设施,成为世界制造业的领导者。中国的制造业产出为4万亿美元。 而印度的制造业产出仅为4030亿美元。由于人口规模相同,所以印度不能在制造业方面落后, 对制造业的关注,不仅会提高印度的 GDP 增长率,还会创造数百万个印度急需的就业机会。

What India needs to do is first recognize that manufacturing is a technical subject. And Bureaucrats, economists sitting in Delhi can’t make policies for a highly technical subject such as manufacturing. Therefore, the Indian government must involve manufacturing startup as well as established manufacturing entrepreneurs in the formal policymaking role. These entrepreneurs are working on the ground and understand the nuances of a technical subject such as manufacturing in detail.
Secondly, the Indian government must act now and develop the necessary manufacturing infrastructure in the country. With manufacturing infrastructure in place, the Indian entrepreneurs will start making globally-competitive goods in India over the coming 5–6 years. Besides that, the global supply chains will themselves line up to set up operations in India. India won’t have to ask them to come, they will come themselves. Create the necessary manufacturing infrastructure and things will start moving.
Kindly note manufacturing infrastructure is different from the physical infrastructure such as roads, ports, railways, electricity, etc.

其次,印度政府必须现在就采取行动,在国内发展必要的制造业基础设施。 随着制造业基础设施到位,印度企业家将在未来5到6年内开始在印度生产具有全球竞争力的产品。除此之外,全球供应链本身也将在印度建立业务。 印度不需要请他们来,他们会自己过来的。建立必要的制造业基础设施,事情就会开始运作起来了。

India will have to very hard to become an alternate for China. India has comparatively very poor infrastructure which leads to high production cost. India will have to put in place good quality infrastructure. On the other hand India has very record in terms of enforcement of contracts. India needs to invest in its judicial system commercial dispute can be resolved with in reasonable period of time which now takes a lot of time. India also needs to ensure policy stability which is not there now. Policy in stability creates uncertainty in mind in investors and investors are not egar to put money. Policy in stability in telecommunications, mining and other sectors resulted loss of money to the investors. Apart from these measures public delivery system and public administration also need to be strengthened. Good quality human capital is needed. Large scale foreign direct investment can do wonders for India. Vietnam and Bangladesh have readily capitalized on the opportunity and emerged as an alternate manufacturing base for China. Electronic gaints Samsung which entered India in 90's has a turn over of 10 billion dollars in India which accounts for less than 1% India ‘s GDP. Compare it with Vietnam. Samsung has established its factory in Vietnam much later. Now Samsung has 68 billion dollars in Vietnam which accounts for 28% of its GDP. As far as Bangladesh is concerned it has emerged as a readymade garment manufacturer of the world and now exports approximately 35 billion US dollars worth of garments as against 16 billion dollars exports of India.

Sanjay Sondhi 印度内政部官员(2015年至今)
印度还需要确保政策的稳定性,而目前还不存在这种稳定性。 政策不稳定会让投资者心中产生不确定性,投资者不愿意投资。 除了这些措施外,还需要加强公共服务系统和公共行政。高质量的人力资本是必要的。大规模的外国直接投资可以为印度创造奇迹。
越南和孟加拉国已经准备好抓住这个机遇,成为取代中国的制造基地。三星在90年代进入印度,在印度的销售额超过100亿美元,占印度国内生产总值的不到1%。和越南比较一下。三星在越南建厂的时间要晚得多。现在三星在越南的销售额为680亿美元,占其 GDP的28%。而孟加拉国,它已经成为世界服装制造商,目前出口价值约350亿美元的服装,而印度出口价值为160亿美元。

India’s enemy number one is CORRUPTION! But Modi thinks the Muslims of India are the enemies. If corruption is eradicated,India will become number one in anything!

Mohamed Iqbal 在印尼工作

China is not democratic and will take more pragmatic and speedier decisions. India, as of now, has had the habit of not discussed, planned properly.
Both the countries are facing problems of productive labor and falling commodity exports. (India, more so).
Other Asian countries like S Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore have better political stability and consistency in their economic activities.
Hope this helps, do stay safe, make a better day !

Jayaram Muthuswamy 住在印度

In my opinion the chances are extremely remote. The reasons are not far to seek.
The level of investment required to create a massive manufacturing base is beyond the scope of India
India lacks the requisite highly skilled labour force in the required number and diversity
India lacks the needed engineering and product design capability. Currently most of the designs are either licenced or the property of MNCs who will not transfer the technology.
India lacks the natural resources necessary to sustain a huge manufacturing base in the required quantum and diversity
India lacks the infrastructure that needs to go hand in hand with the massive manufacturing base.
The acquisition of land required commensurate with the manufacturing base itself will take half a century since it is such a cumbersome process. There will be stiff opposition from farmers , NGOs and activists
India is notoriously short of water. Diversion of water for industry will trigger opposition from activists and NGOs
The industrial climate is not that good
Manufacturing leadership presupposes export leadership which is a tall order

Balachandran Krishnamoorty
印度缺乏必要的工程和产品设计能力。 目前,大多数设计要么是获得许可证的,要么属于不转让技术的跨国公司;

I do not think that India will ever replace China as a global leader in manufacturing. China grasped the advantage offered by the west to erect their manufacturing bases in China. Now with the emergence of China as a challenger to the West, I doubt if any company from the west would prefer to have its base in India, an another bigger country.
My guess is that the west would go after small nations in Asia. I will not be surprised if they look for bases in Africa as China is currently doing.

Ramkumar Natarajan

It is possible only with the support of the USA, EU, Israel and Japan. It will require huge foreign investment, transfer of cutting edge technology and global market. These are available only with the countries mentioned. PRC became global manufacturing hub only with the support of the USA. We must therefore cultivate very good relations with the businesses in those countries. Offer them cheap hitech labour and world class infrastructure in return. Woo MNCs with attractive policies and still better ease of doing business.
This government is taking all the necessary steps but will require to further improve ipon them. Get the best indian origin talent to train up our engineering grads and others diwn to the workers on shop floor. Don't go for techs that are soon going to be obsolete. Go for EVs rather than lament the demise of MVs. Go for the AI, 3D printing, IOT and IOIT etc. Things are changing very fast and we must go for the cutting edge technologies. Get knowledge transfer from them.

Jagdish Dubey 曾就读于印度艾哈迈达巴德管理学院
这只有在美国、欧盟、以色列和日本的支持下才有可能。这将需要大量的外国投资、尖端技术的转让和全球市场。只有上述国家才能提供这些服务。在美国的支持下,中国成为全球制造业中心。 因此,我们必须与这些国家的企业建立非常良好的关系。 为他们提供廉价的高科技劳动力和世界级的基础设施作为回报。用有吸引力的政策和更好的经商环境吸引跨国公司。
本届政府正在采取一切必要措施,但需要进一步改进这些措施。聘请最优秀的印度籍人才来培养我们的工程学毕业生和车间里的其他工人。不要追求那些很快就会过时的技术。去追求电动汽车,而不是哀叹混合动力汽车的消亡。追求人工智能、3D打印、物联网和 IOIT 等技术。事情正在迅速发生变化,我们必须采用最先进的技术。从上述国家那里获得知识转移。

There may be only one answer to this question and that would be $$$$. If a country can produce other countries products cheaper than China..or even at half the wage of Chinese laborers, you surely can bet that global manufacturing production can move to India in a heartbeat. China, today, has much competition, especially from poorer Asian and South Asian countries. These countries are ready to accept this global business with open arms. India can become the next “China” in manufacturing and production technologies. Also, because India is the world’s largest democracy, this is more of an advantage, too, for other nations to shift their production to India.

Salvatore Barrera
这个问题可能只有一个答案,那就是钱$$$。如果一个国家能够生产比中国更便宜的产品... 或者甚至工资只有中国劳动力的一半,你也可以肯定地说,全球制造业生产可以瞬间转移到印度。当今的中国有很多竞争对手,特别是来自较贫穷的亚洲和南亚国家。这些国家已经准备好张开双臂接受这项全球业务。在制造和生产技术方面,印度可以成为下一个“中国”。另外,由于印度是世界上最大的民主国家,其他国家将生产转移到印度也更有优势。

China is still very very strong, we don't have much infrastructure for manufacturing, and US companies moving out of china to other better locations in asia but not coming to india

Deepak Kumar

No country on the planet can achieve what China has achieved in the last 25–30 years. China’s success was political strategy development implemented by business savvy population. There is no country with this setting.
I will continue answering this question with a quota/answer that I created before.
“In general India cannot compete with China. People seem to ignore the fact that China is currently the 2. biggest economy in the world. This means Germany, France UK Italy are left behind in the last 10 years…one by one.
India will get left over industries which were polluting China for decades, hence the bad air quality in India. Apple and some others will have factories in India, were they will assemble parts coming from China. This is mainly a legal loophole to bypass American ‘smart ass’ politicians.”

Bob Thornton,住在中国

To sum it up, India will get to produce what other nations are deciding. No need to feel bad. Even Germany after the war was confined to certain industries.
China decide itself waht to produce and when.
I DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING WITH DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES, where certain “interest” groups and can manipulate politicians.