Jun Dalisay Founder of SORAnomics
Unless you have been living in a cave for 20 years, you might not have noticed that the US has been declining since 9/11.
* Terrorist attacks have risen against the US
* 2008 Financial Crisis was the worst in history
* US Budget Deficit is Huge
* US Gov't shuts down regularly
* US leads in Covid cases and deaths
* US has more riots and crime with some similar to the high of the 90s
* China is now the leader in 5G and some kinds of infrastructure: bulllet trains, dams, and highways
* China has controlled its Covid and has cures from Chinese medicine and supplies PPEs and equipment more cheaply
Trump being president in 2016 is clear proof that the US is falling.
* Putin's solution to Covid is an early vaccine, while Trump's solution is to inject your lungs with bleach after Trump suggests injecting disinfectant
My model shows that the US, as an old 200+ year old society, is now naturally falling (just like Germany), while China, a young 70 year old society is rising and growing up.
* Obama was able to slow the decline, and Biden might try, but their best efforts will just slow the decline and not prevent it.
After a society becomes too old, it naturally dies in the form of a revolution that causes fundamental changes that makes it a new and different entity from the previous one.
* The death of Monarchy-France led to the birth of the Democratic France as the French Revolution via Napoleon
* The death of Prussia led to the birth of Germany via Bismark
After the current US system dies, the Confederates will have a chance to try again to put their vision of a non-democratic America with a president with a longer term, and a system with less check and balances to resemble a king or a real Republic instead of a federation.
Jim Coronel lives in The Philippines
I think it has something to do with the fact that the United States is highly unpredictable nowadays.
Duterte is friends with Trump, but Trump is evidently just a Republican pawn, being forced to echo Republican narratives in return for them saving his ass in the impeachment trial.
Even with their friendship, Duterte still exhibits anti-American rhetoric due to Capitol Hill's shameless habit of meddling in our domestic affairs.
Democrats sanctioning our officials after arresting de Lima. They even had the gall to force us to release her, showing their blatant disregard for our national sovereignty. Some of them, including Obama, called Duterte out for his war on drugs, asking us to stop it cold turkey out of deference to the human rights of criminals.
China, on the other hand, doesn't have a track record of fomenting regime change, sanctioning "rogue states" and dictating weaker countries on how they run their affairs.
They may be bullying our fishermen, forcibly occupying and building military structures on the disputed islands.
But those are nothing compared to being slapped with sanctions designed to cripple our economy and worsen poverty, or assassinating Duterte for refusing to follow Washington's line—both of which are atrocities from a utilitarian perspective. I don't intend to countenance China's condemnable actions despite being openly an admirer of China and a supporter. Nor do I support Duterte's foreign policy since I prefer a more pragmatic one that emphasizes cooperation with all.
But I now understand why Duterte is cozying up to China and making up stupid excuses like Beijing nuking us if we take the islands when Jakarta rammed Chinese boats. He may use Beijing as a lifeline should Washington decide to impose sanctions on us for our "human rights violations" if Biden wins this November.
PS: While it seems that the arrest of de Lima is sketchy and the war on drugs is excessively brutal and therefore in dire need of reform, it doesn't excuse Capitol Hill from telling us how we run our affairs when we didn't ask them to. If you have any objections to both issues, you don't have to kiss America's ass by calling for their intervention. If we shouldn’t be a Chinese stooge, why should we be an American stooge instead?
Richard Kenneth Eng
I agree with you 100%. I’m a supporter of China but they’ve made strategic mistakes. Nevertheless, China is more reliable and trustworthy than the United States. It’s better to be friends with China.
> Duterte is friends with Trump
Can Trump be “friends” with anybody? He’s a shallow, volatile, backstabbing kind of friend.
I believe so.
It is evident that Trump respects Duterte as he doesn’t share the same opinions as the rest of Washington with regards to how we run our country.
That is one of the very few admirable qualities I see in Trump and the only reason why I want him to win this November against Biden, who will NOT respect Duterte and the sovereignty of the Filipino people.
Alex Wong Jian
Jim, I agree with you. Despite Trump's many shortcomings, Biden is worse. Not that US has no capable leaders. But the “system” is so sacred and rigid that no one capable would rise to the top echelon.
Chan Han Meng
The US likes to tell everyone what to do. China doesn't do that.
I have been observing that small or developing countries have relationship with one power and if there is irritation then quickly try to jump into the hands of another looking they would get succour, safe. It will not be so as history has proved ample times, for example the cow while grazing one bank would try to jump to the opposite bank imagining more green!! ASEAN has good elements and why to lose confidence , I really don't understand leaders get narrow view and get caught?
before I answer this - a question you need to ask.
What does China give and what does USA give.
if you look at the history of USA - the USA became the superpower in the past 200 years. and in those 200 years it has killed more philippinos - balagiga incident FAST FACTS: Balangiga Massacre
in the 200 years of USA being the super power it has killed more philippinoes than china has killed in its 2000 years of being a super power.
if your peel all the layers of freedom, democracy, blah blah blah - that USA publishes you will find that USA is basically a very racist nation and its only objective is to keep all nations from being developed and keep them supressed in the name of freakdom and demoncracy.
one example is - the marshal plan (actually it was called the european recovery plan) - note the marshal plan was focussed on economic recovery of Europe- and included Australia, New zealand (all white people nations)
has anyone every thought why? did not Philippines suffer under WWII did not Indonesia get destroyed - was Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos Cambodia not made to pay by its destruction.
did Africa not get destroyed. - why did the USA not engage these nations in the marshal plan?
the answer is very simple - the USA wanted all other non white nations to be poor and to live in destitution - so that they would always spire to go and live in USA /Europe. that way USA would always get to exploit the Indians, the pakistanis and the africans. so that they could pick and choose the best of them - and keep developing their technology and economy. A kind of world order where USA would be on top and rest would be slaves of USA FOREVER.
China threatens this world order - China is a trading nation - its wealth comes from trading and the more people that are prosperous - the better it is for China - that is why you see china developing africa - so that their natural resources are exploited there is improvement in their life - so that they can buy Chinese goods - this is the paradigm that is being promoted by China.
the philippines finds that the paradigms is more beneficial in spite of there being some dispute between china and Philippines.
EDIT - if you really want to thank me - please share this answer.
The US proposed the Marshall plan because Europe was still important, and it wanted allies against the growing communist east. Its the same reason the US rebuilt Japan and let so many Japanese war criminals go free - so that Japan wouldn’t be bitter and would be a valuable ally in the Pacific, despite the fact that Japan isn’t white.
The US’ foreign policy isn’t racially motivated. If it were, we would have defended the UK during the Suez crisis, which we didn’t.
Japan was not rebuilt by USA - please dont fudge facts - neither is South Korea
Japan was rebuilt in large part by America. We gave them their current constitution and helped revitalize their economy. This wasn’t done out of kindness, it was done for geopolitical gain, but if America simply left Japan after 1945 it would be much worse off today.
delusion. Japan was well off before the USA came and they would be well off without the USA.
Japan was relatively well off in 1939. By 1945 they had exhausted their population from war. Their infrastructure in in tatters due to US bombing, and their diplomatic status was in the toilet. It would have taken many more decades to get to where they are today if Japan weren’t reconstructed with US help.
Denying that America ever helped another nation is as stupid as saying that it is responsible for every good in the world. Its indisputable fact that the US built up Japan, just as the allies (including the USSR) built up sections of Germany post WWII.
Ah yes, china, totally more peaceful than the US. I don’t know whos been feeding you your info buts its biased as hell. I am filipino and we don’t want the chinese nowhere near us. We don’t want censored news and someone exploiting and starving us.
please ask the Iraqis that - how much they are enjoying their freakdom and demoNcracy
The Iraqis actually enjoyed “freakdom and demoncracy” for some time. They fired guns in celebration after they learned that the US had killed Saddam’s bloodthirsty son, and a number of them supported the American invasion. It wasn’t until years later that Iraqis as a whole missed Saddam.
While he helped keep terrorism out, and removing him was a mistake for the region, Saddam was in many respects such a bad ruler that substantial segments of the Iraqi population supported foreign invasion over his rule. They didn’t regret their decision until years later. There is importance in democracy and freedom. The things Saddam’s son was allowed to do everyday to Iraqis is proof of that. I would go so far as to say that if we didn’t fuck up the occupation and actually put resources into improving the region, Iraqis would have celebrated the ousting of Saddam today instead of regretting it.
Richard Kenneth Eng
Most remarkable that you can speak for all Filipinos.
China will never, ever, interfere in Philippines’ politics. Our society has nothing to worry about.
The USA routinely interferes in the politics of other nations, as it has done in Philippines.
You don’t seem to know anything about China. China is actually quite democratic.
China is far more peaceful than the USA. China has never invaded a faraway foreign country like Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. China has not built 800 military bases around the globe. China does not have 11 super carrier groups roaming the world’s seas. China does not have 1,750 fully deployed nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Why do you think the USA has so much firepower?
The USA is a country built on warfare. It’s economy is heavily dependent on the military-industrial complex.
Just for your edification, since the Second World War, the USA has conducted wars, either directly or by proxy, against Afghanistan, Angola, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Cambodia, Chad, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, East Timor, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Korea (North and South), Laos, Nepal, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Philippines, Sudan, Uruguay, Vietnam, Yugoslavia.
So tell me who’s more peaceful.
“China will never, ever, interfere in the Philippines’ politics.”
What makes you so certain?
In the span of three decades America went from an isolationist nation that wanted to do nothing with the outside world to a country that was the head of the Western faction in the Cold War. Until that moment, America had (with the exception of the Spanish American war) stayed in the Americas. A few decades was all it took to change that. Historically, going as far back as thousands of years before America, regional superpowers, even those that were once peaceful (like Egypt) turned to imperialism and crushing their neighbors when it saw fit.
At the moment, China isn’t as bad as the media says they are. That doesn’t mean it will remain that way forever. A change in leadership, and the fall of the US from superpower status, would be all it takes for them to take a more belligerent stance. One should never assume that a power, even if its peaceful now, will stay peaceful forever. That delusional outlook is the reason the US has gotten away with so much bloodshed. China will do what it thinks is best for China. If that means being peaceful, then it will be peaceful. If it ever thinks that it will benefit from belligerency, and that the gains outweigh the risks, it will do that. This has been the pattern of Eastern and Western nations for millennia.
Richard Kenneth Eng
China is upfront with their surveillance system. (America’s was clandestine, until Edward Snowden.)
The Chinese accept the surveillance because it confers genuine benefits to their society. In fact, that’s how the Chinese view everything in their society. It’s about what’s good for society, not for the individual. This is the exact opposite of America (which, btw, is why the US handling of COVID is such a clusterfuck).
You don’t seem to understand that China is completely different from America. The cultures are different. The histories are different. The philosophies are different. The people are different.
The Chinese appreciate what the government has done for them. The last 30 years have been the very best ever in China’s 4,000 years of history. That’s why China enjoys the most trusted government in the world.
According to the Edelman Trust Barometer
Joseph Boyle lives in California (1988-present)
Alliance has to be for stability and peace for all. Conflict would be disastrous whichever side you are on.
China is economically integrated with other regional and developed countries. It’s time to drop the pretense of hostility and admit China is militarily allied with all too.
Jonathan Buttall former Retired Professional in Behavioral Health Field
The Philippines has become an outlaw country, a failed state where murder at will has been legalized by a mad Dictator, Duterte.
No country should be it’s ally. It’s insane that US troops are still there, they should have evacuated long ago. This state should be isolated and avoided by other countries.
David Cote B.A. Engineering, University of New Hampshire (2010)
The US and the Philippians have a long history together, I don’t think the Philippines have any intention of shifting away from the US. Play each side against the other so to speak, but I think shifting out of the US sphere entirely is a big mistake…
Ultimately, America’s ambitions and interests are not totally altruistic, but they are based on a certain set of rules and are fairly transparent. China’s are not. The US Navy wouldn’t force itself into Subic Bay because the Philippine government defaulted on a loan. The US left when they were asked to leave. Its not as though the Philippines could have forced the US out if the request was refused, but the US left anyways. Would the Chinese do the same?
It ultimately comes down to who you think would make for a better arbitrator over the global trade system. The US and its western allies, or China and its eastern allies?
Idy Udoma-Udofa lives in Abuja, Nigeria
Since geography is destiny then china is a better ally , plus they live in the same neighborhood
There's a saying when your neighbors house is on fire you will inhale the smoke , when your house is on fire your neighbor will inhale the smoke.. so it's in their best interest to work together
Almost any country is a better ally than the US. The US doesn't have allies in that region anyway, only vassals and puppet states. The Philippines is taking the right course and is doing a good thing. Hope it gets bettet.
April Fu lives in Makati City, Philippines
China is already helping African countries, and there are many Southeast Asian countries joining the “Belt and Road” initiative.China can bring more infrastructure, which is what the Philippines needs most now.for example Free wifi everywhere in China,but in makati i can’t see any wifi.
Jun Tupas lives in The Philippines
I don’t think Philippines is trying to leave US for China in general. The government led by PRRD has implemented an independent foreign policy and has leaned towards China primarily for trade investments and bilateral agreements such as, joint oil and gas development, telecommunication, water and electricity. US has not been very proactive on its trade with the Philippines compared with other ASEAN given its policy to the current administration.
US has still has huge investments in the country and has provided military assistance through its Mutual Defense Treaty. What the government is trying to do is gradually improving its trade to non traditional allies such as, China and Russia.
Philippines is in a very strategic location as far as, ensuring free navigation, ASEAN and ally defense and control of the South China Sea on its resources and environment.
J Tang civic org volunteer
Despite being constitutionally elected, the Filipino government has been a flawed democracy since its independence. Its current president has been notoriously known for his extrajudicial treatment of drug dealers. With this authoritarian approach and the lack of basic respect for the judicial system, it is not surprising that the current government chooses to be closer to China (PRC) than the US.
Rodrigo Duterte is God sent to Philippines, and Philippines finally got a smart President who doesn't want to be a pawn as well as an inferior vassal of USA.Philippines' Citizens should feel proud nowadays and should hold their heads high finally that Duterte has taken back their pride and sovereignty.
Richard Kenneth Eng
I think it’s a very wise decision. China would be much better for Philippines than America. China is much more generous economically, as witnessed by Belt and Road. China does not interfere in the domestic and political matters of other nations.
Belt and road is not an act of generosity. If you read the terms of these contracts, they involve China gaining resources or critical infrastructure when the countries inevitably fail to pay. The projects are overbid, run over-budget, it’s debt diplomacy, plain and simple.
Richard Kenneth Eng
But the US has already interfered in the Philippines. Has China?
A damn sight better than the “Royal Families” left by the US, which blight this country for evermore. It’s been the fastest growing economy for the 12 years I’ve lived in the region and currently its currency has strengthened against the major currencies, especially the dollar, but also the Euro and Pound Sterling. Something to do with balance of payments and lowering of deficits and other financial stuff I don’t profess to understand. The problem is that said “Royal Families” trouser it all for themselves with their corrupt US system of government and cronyism. And why not China, the two countries are at least in the Asia Pacific Region.
I’m not sure they are. Duterte likes to think of himself as a tough guy who never kowtows to anyone. But when China became a serious threat to his claims on the South China Sea, he did not hesitate to ask the US for help.
one reason might be the US killed many Filipino when it colonized the Philippines in the past and philippines in more interested in trading and peace and not building a war machine to fight China just because the US demands it.
Hayley Carmona BA International Relations & Diplomacy, Lyceum of the Philippines University Cavite Campus
Our president thinks US keeps on meddling in our internal affairs especially his campaign against illegal drugs.
Ruby Mei Le
You either follow a loser or a winner. China will soon be the winner.
If I have 2 friends, one in the same street where is my house and other which live in other part of the town and I need some help and protection, I will rather chose my neighbor! Special if I know, that this guy in other side of town is lunatic!