[2020-11-14]封锁 vs 经济？事实证明，严厉的封锁=经济的复苏

Fionn Wright
Lockdown vs Economy? As it turns out, harsh lockdown = economic recovery
No surprises here.What is surprising is how few countries did just that.I wonder what those who criticized China for its “Draconian” lockdown would say now?I must say I’m incredibly grateful to be in China.
With the exception of a few Asian countries and some small countries like New Zealand, this graph is only a snapshot.More deaths and economic fallout to come.

（作者Fionn）封锁 vs 经济？事实证明，严厉的封锁=经济的复苏。
没什么好惊讶的。但让人惊讶的是，很少有国家能做到。我不知道那些批评中国“严厉”封锁的人现在会怎么说？我必须说，我非常感激能来到中国。
除了少数几个亚洲国家和新西兰等一些小国外，这个图表只是一个快照。更多的死亡病例和经济余波将会到来。

What a tragedy,That could have been largely avoided,And could be stopped now.
But alas, many of us like our freedoms too much.When will we learn?And who can we learn from?The answer is clearer by the day...Though few are willing to admit.This is not a drill,People’s lives hang in the balance.
Wake up planet earth 🌏

真是一场悲剧，这在很大程度上是可以避免的，现在就能停止。但是，唉，我们很多人太喜欢自由了。我们什么时候才能学会？我们可以向谁学习？答案一天比一天清楚...虽然很少有人愿意承认。这不是演习，人民的生命悬于一线。
地球醒醒吧。
----------------------

Dr. Angelika Berger-Sodian
Thanks for sharing Fionn Wright. I am not surprised at all. I have been a China advocate for years as you know, which was also the reason to write my book “In the Year of the Tiger - Why it is not too late to learn from China” - before we even knew that Covid was coming...

Fionn，谢谢分享。我一点也不惊讶。你知道，我多年来一直是中国的倡导者，这也是我写《虎年——为什么向中国学习还不算太晚》这本书的原因，甚至这是在我们知道疫情即将来临之前写的...

Fionn Wright
Yes indeed the world needs more people like you Dr. Angelika Berger-Sodian sharing the realities of being on the ground in China 🙌🏻

（作者）是的，这个世界确实需要更多像你这样的人，安吉丽卡博士，来分享在中国的实际情况。

Ashwini Nalawade Pawar
So true.

太对了。

David Hudson
The position of India on the chart is rather anomalous ... was the country a victim of slower demand for its' output across the world?

印度在图表上的位置相当反常... 是全世界需求放缓的受害国家？

Chao W.
Nation wide lock down.

全国范围的封锁。

Fionn Wright
Do you mean in relation to GDP or deaths or both?

（作者）你的意思是关于GDP或死亡人数还是两者都有？

David Hudson
The axis I suspect most is the deaths figure ....

我最怀疑的轴是死亡数字...

Maurith Or Man
David Hudson I noticed the same thing, David

我也注意到了

Thomas Coupat
David Hudson Even the Indian Ministry of Health says that they will never know the true figures. There was an article indicating that they expect reported data to come in very late but the biggest issue is that now that rural areas are impacted a lot of deaths will never be reported as those areas simply dont have systems to do that.

甚至印度卫生部也表示，他们永远不会知道真实的数字。有一篇文章指出，他们预计报告的数据很晚才能得到，但最大的问题是，现在农村地区受到影响，许多死亡人数永远不会被报告，因为这些地区根本没有这样的系统。

Gabor Holch
Fionn Wright I generally agree with your conclusion, but the lockdown measures aren't represented in this graph. Sweden and the US, two nations with drastically different approaches, are right next to each other, as are Canada and South Africa. or Germany and New Zealand. Without the lockdown dimension included, the graph says that more deaths per million coincide with larger GDP fall, which is to be expected.

我基本上同意你的结论，但是封锁措施在这个图表中没有表现出来。瑞典和美国，两个方法截然不同的国家，紧挨着彼此，加拿大和南非也是如此。或者德国和新西兰。图表显示，如果不考虑封锁的因素，每百万人中死亡人数增加的同时，GDP下降的幅度也会更大，这是可以预料的。

Wu Yunsong
disagree on one point: Sweden and US actually took the same approach - so-called herd immunity (real herd immunity has a condition - vaccine has been already applied)... ... and their results are similar

不同意一点：瑞典和美国实际上采取了相同的方法——所谓的群体免疫(真正的群体免疫有一个条件——疫苗已经应用) ... 他们的结果是相似的

Jim Hoffmann
The core concept of individual liberty limits the effectiveness of attempts at centralized controls in western democracies. I think much of the data available is very limited in its reliability. There are just too many variables in this pandemic and the national and local responses to rely on two axis charts for competitive assumptions and forecasts. It is a cool chart though.

个人自由的核心概念限制了西方民主国家集中控制的有效性。我认为现有的大部分数据的可靠性都非常有限。在这场大流行病中有太多的变量，国家和地方的反应不能依靠双轴图表来进行竞争性的假设和预测。不过，这是一个很酷的图表。

Gabor Holch
Jim Hoffmann Last week Francis Fukuyama came to the same conclusion at an event I attended at the EU Chamber. But people still like taking bets and announcing 'winners'.

上周，弗朗西斯·福山在我参加的欧盟商会的一次活动中得出了同样的结论。但是人们仍然喜欢赌，并宣布“赢家”。

Miquel (Mike) Cardona
In Spain we were locked down for almost 3 months. I think the key point is managing well borders + having tools to track contacts & cases + social discipline

在西班牙，我们被封锁了将近3个月。我认为关键是管理好边界 + 拥有追踪联系人和病例的工具 + 社会纪律

Fionn Wright
Lockdown with a leak is not lockdown

（作者）有漏洞的封锁不叫封锁

Miquel (Mike) Cardona
In China there were QR controls everywhere to check temperature and companies were forced to run tests to their employees making them accountable. Spain was aiming for summer tourists and it was not a good decision to relax measure so promptly I'd say. On top of that we kiss, we hugh and stay around with people the whole day

在中国，到处都有二维码来检查温度，公司也强制对员工进行检测，让他们负起责任。西班牙的目标是夏季旅游者，所以这么快就放松措施，并不是一个好的决定。最重要的是，我们亲吻，我们整天和人呆在一起。

Daniel Gove
It’s sad, when China stated how they had stopped the spread of Covid, after halting domestic travel, extensive contact tracing (to the extent of sending doctors administer temperature checks at homes, customer contact info at stores, and mobile payment regulation for potential infections), and requiring mandatory masks, even when outdoors, American media (NY times and Bloomberg) was quick to blast China for lying about their numbers, based off an “intelligence report,” which still hasn’t been released.
 The media is supposed to be a watchdog for the populace, but unfortunately, is now overly hyped on views and ratings, instead of protecting the people. 
The United States did not adapt to the threat, and sees enemies through the wrong lenses. The political position and outdated thinking of the US is destroying nation I care for so much.

中国停止国内旅行、广泛追踪接触(包括派医生去家庭检查体温、商店的客户联系信息、以及针对潜在感染的移动支付监管)、要求强制戴口罩(即使在户外)，令人遗憾的是，美国媒体(纽约时报和彭博社)根据一份“情报报告”，迅速抨击称中国在数据上“撒谎”，而该报告至今尚未公布。
媒体本应该是服务民众的监督者，但不幸的是，它现在是为了过度炒作的观点和收视率，而不是保护人民。
美国没有适应这种威胁，从错误的角度看待敌人。美国的政治地位和过时的思想正在摧毁我非常关心的国家。

Fionn Wright
Very well put Daniel, leadership matters.

（作者）很好的观点，领导力很重要。

Paul Beddie
Thanks for sharing Fionn Wright. I’m also very grateful to be in China this year.
Very strict lockdown and full & nearly universally accepted compliance with quarantine & mask rules.
I’ve been traveling around China to multiple regions of the country & it’s the same story everywhere - the entire country is fully back and the economy is booming. Still strict/mandatory compliance with all local, real-time health check apps and masks on all public transport and large gatherings, but beyond that, life is fully back to “China Speed” normal.

谢谢Fionn的分享。我也非常感谢今年来到中国。
非常严格的封锁，几乎所有人都接受检测和口罩规定。
我已经在中国各地旅行了很多地方，到处都是同样的情况——整个国家已经完全恢复，经济正在蓬勃发展。在所有公共交通工具和大型集会上，仍然严格/强制遵守所有当地的实时健康检查应用程序和口罩，但除此之外，生活完全恢复到“中国速度”的正常状态。

Fionn Wright
Yup fully back to China speed, country wide, it’s really quite incredible when the “developed world” is struggling so much.

（作者）是的，在全国范围内，完全回到了中国速度，当“发达国家”如此挣扎的时候，这真的是相当令人难以置信。

Philippe Gerwill
Unfortunately I fully agree with you Fionn and the cumulative number of deaths is the number I am checking the most on a daily basis because it doesn‘t really depend on any testing capacity but is also the most dramatic one. By the way there are some other poorer country missing on that graph that are in very bad shape too like Peru, Bolivia, Chile or Ecuador. As I was already saying many times, the one that is the most benefiting from our so called „Freedom“ in the Western World is the Covid itself...

悲哀的是，我完全同意你的观点，Fionn。累计死亡人数是我每天查看最多的数字，因为它不真正取决于任何检测能力，但也是最戏剧性的一个数据。顺便说一下，图表中还有一些较贫穷的国家没有出现，这些国家的情况也非常糟糕，比如秘鲁、玻利维亚、智利或厄瓜多尔。正如我已经说过很多次的那样，在西方世界，从我们所谓的“自由”中受益匪浅的是“新冠”本身...

Fionn Wright
COVID is indeed free to roam the planet as it likes!

（作者）“新冠”确实可以随心所欲地在地球上漫步！

D.A Belnavis Co-founder OXYGN™ 3 million MAU
wish it was that simple

真希望事情就这么简单

Fionn Wright - 仁飞扬
It never is...

（作者）从来都不是...

Craig Wilson
Good chart, Fionn. Would be nice to see a few more East Asian data points, to fill up upper left quadrant. What is data source❓

很好的图表，Fionn。如果能看到更多的东亚数据点就更好了，这些数据可以填满左上象限。数据源是什么？

Fionn Wright - 仁飞扬
I agree about the East Asian data points. I got this chart from Ian Bremmer who cited FT as the source, not sure where the original data came from Craig Wilson

（作者）我同意加上东亚的数据点。我是从伊恩 · 布雷默那里得到了这个图表，他引用了金融时报，但不确定原始数据来自克雷格 · 威尔逊。

Craig Wilson
Thanks, Fionn. If you do any followup analysis on what policy priorities/programs have enabled stronger ‘V’ rebound, would be value-added addition to chart. Variables like govt income support that actually had impact on aggregate demand; targeted business supports that best impacted sales, wages, growth metrics for SME/various sectors. Wonder about Lin YiFu (Justin Lin) work on endowment investments, also what are investment priorities of Chinese government to encourage what I label snap-forward in investment in new sectors to build resilience - e.g., digital economy, data storage, 5G, IoT, security/access, infrastructure, education - to increase Chinese capacity for 6/7G extreme digital economy of 2040/mid century.

谢谢你，Fionn。如果你对更强劲的V型反弹是由哪些政策、优先事项或计划的实施，做一些后续分析，将会让图表更有价值。比如政府收入支持等类似的变量，实际上对总需求有影响；有针对性的商业支持对销售、工资、中小企业/各部门的增长指标影响最大。关于林毅夫捐赠投资方面的工作，还有中国的投资重点是什么，以鼓励我所说的对新领域的快速投资，从而建立抗风险能力，例如：数字经济、数据存储、5G、物联网、安全/接入、基础设施、教育，以提高中国在2040年或本世纪中期6/7G极限数字经济的能力。

Enzo Della Sala
How do you arrive at the conclusion that harsh lockdown = economic recovery with this graph? The harshest lockdown in Europe were in Spain and Italy, and yet the economy collapsed.

通过这个图表，你是如何得出严厉的封锁 = 经济复苏 这结论的？西班牙和意大利有欧洲最严厉的封锁，然而经济却崩溃了。

Fionn Wright
Perhaps “effective lockdown” would be more to your liking?

（作者）也许“有效的封锁”更合你意？

Michelle (Castillo) Wonderland
Thank you for sharing, Fionn Wright. Moving from Asia to the US sheds a light on the terrible mismanagement of the pandemic, and everything now is politicized, including the simple task of wearing a mask to protect those around you. Poor leadership here, but an election is on the horizon. Hoping for improvement.

感谢分享，Fionn。从亚洲到美国，人们可以看到对这场大流行的严重管理不善，现在一切都被政治化了，包括戴上口罩保护你周围的人这样简单的任务。这里的领导能力很差，但选举即将举行。希望有所改善。

Fionn Wright
Yes the politicizing of mask wearing is a deep tragedy Michelle (Castillo) Wonderland - let us strive for better leadership 🙌🏻

（作者）没错，戴口罩的政治化是一场深刻的悲剧，让我们为更好的领导而努力。

Manoj Namboodiri
Yes though its a bit more than lockdowns alone. Mass compliance in mask, safe distancing , backward contact tracing and cluster busting.

是的，虽然这不仅仅是封锁那么简单。群体遵从戴口罩、安全距离、反向接触追踪和集群拆分。

Fionn Wright - 仁飞扬
Yes multiple factors here indeed

（作者）是的，这确实有多种因素。

Martínez Riba
Sad to see Spanish position in the chart...but it reflects facts.

很遗憾看到西班牙在图表中的位置... 但它反映了事实。

Sunny Fong
Couldn’t agree more

完全同意

Josey Zadoria
What kind of propaganda is this? The scientists all disagree with the lockdowns. The facts support that lockdowns do more harm than stopping the spread.
Why don't you just swear your fealty to China instead of trying to pass this nonsense off to the public? Isn't it obvious?

这是什么宣传？科学家们都不同意封锁。事实证明，封锁带来的危害比阻止传染更大。
你为什么不干脆向中国宣誓效忠，而不是试图把这些废话传递给公众？这不是很明显吗？

Jason Manning
Here in China, everything is relatively back to normal, it's not propaganda when it's reality. My family and I are safe because we are in China and not in Melbourne.

我在中国生活，一切都相对恢复了正常，这不是宣传，而是现实。我和我的家人很安全，因为我们在中国，而不是在墨尔本。

Chao W.
Jason ManningFully agree.

完全同意。

Chao W.
People in certain countries are still refusing to wear masks NOW. No matter how and what China do and no matter how well China does, they just can't see and only want to live in their illusions. Accepting reality takes more pains, let's wait, won't take long. Winter is coming.

现在某些国家的人仍然拒绝戴口罩。不管中国怎么做，做了什么，不管中国做得多好，他们就是看不见，只想活在他们的幻想中。接受现实需要更多的痛苦，让我们等待，不会花很长时间。冬天就要来了。

Maurith Or Man
Something is not right with the Indian mortality rate. Boris really screwed up in the UK, that’s for sure. The lockdown could have been a lot milder, had we looked at the data better. But there the dark forces that pulled the strings to make us go in the blind alley we went into

印度的死亡率有些不对劲。鲍里斯在英国真的搞砸了，这是肯定的。如果我们能更好地研究数据的话，这次封锁可能会更温和一些。但是有黑暗的力量牵引着我们，让我们走进了死胡同。

Harald B.
Many places in India don't even report numbers of death, because they don't have the infrastructure to systematically count them. Obviously they can't report numbers of Covid deaths then.

印度的许多地方甚至没有报告死亡人数，因为他们没有系统统计死亡人数的基础设施。很明显，他们无法报告因为新冠而死亡的人数。

Jason Manning
Politicians who don't listen to climate scientists also didn't listen to health experts. It's not a coincidence. If a politician is in the pocket of a CEO they also didn't want to have lockdowns.

政客不听从气候科学家，也不听从健康专家的意见。这不是巧合。如果政客被首席执行官控制，他们也不会想要封锁。

Andrew B.
Thanks for sharing

谢谢分享。

Li-kang Sun
Have see s Korea in this diagram, how about n Korea?

在这个图表中看到了韩国，那么朝鲜呢？

Mike Cairnduff
Nice analysis, Fionn. In Melbourne, Australia we're still in a form of lockdown (one of the longest in the world, apparently). Australia's infections and deaths per capita is amongst the lowest in the world. It would be good to see us on the graph.

分析得不错，Fionn。在澳大利亚的墨尔本，我们仍然处于某种形式的封锁中(显然是世界持续时间最长的封锁之一)。澳大利亚的人均感染率和死亡率是世界上最低的。如果能在图表上看到我们就好了。

Michael White
Doesn’t take a chart to know that countries hit hardest by the virus have a tougher time economically.

不需要图表就可以知道，受病毒影响最严重的国家在经济上会更加困难。

Andrew David Field, Ph.D.
I think you have to have the willpower and the political capital to follow up after the lockdown. Look how China handles every small outbreak since the first lockdown. Not many other countries have the resources or political will to do so, unfortunately

我认为你必须有意志力和政治资本，才能在封锁之后继续跟进。看看中国是如何处理自第一次封锁以来的每一次小规模疫情。不幸的是，没有多少其他国家拥有这样做的资源或政治意愿。

Donald Canton
China grew its GDP by 4.9% in Q3 2020 while most part of the world is still dreaming for a positive GDP growth because China got the Covid-19 patients under control while the other countries still have to give freedom to the virus of the Covid-19 patients to spread.
US White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on the 25th of October, 2020, said that the USA would not control the epidemic and that the USA would control the access to vaccines, treatments (methods) and other mitigation measures only.
The Chinese mind their own business to get the pandemic under control, 11 new coronavirus vaccines entered the clinical trial in China, and more projects done related to the pandemic than the other countries.

2020年第三季度，中国GDP增长了4.9%，而世界上大多数国家仍然梦想着GDP的正增长，因为中国已经控制住了新冠疫情，而其他国家仍然不得不给予新冠病毒传播的自由。
2020年10月25日，美国白宫办公厅主任马克 · 梅多斯表示，美国不会控制疫情，只会控制疫苗、治疗(方法)和其他缓解措施的使用。
中国人不留余力来控制大流行，11种新冠状病毒疫苗在中国进行了临床试验，与大流行相关的项目比其他国家更多。

The advantages of the Chinese ultra-large-scale market and the advantages of complete industrial support have provided strong and continuous recovery of the industry, the government policy effects have continued to be released, and the industrial transformation and upgrading are progressing in an orderly manner in China.
Emerging industries continue to grow, and continue to drive industrial transformation and upgrading. In the first three quarters, the value-added of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 5.9% year-on-year, of which the value-added of the electronics and communication equipment manufacturing, medical instrument and instrument manufacturing industries increased by 8.3% and 11.8% respectively.

中国超大规模市场的优势和完全产业支持的优势，为产业持续强劲复苏提供了有利条件，政府政策效应不断释放，产业转型升级在中国有序推进。
新兴产业持续壮大，继续带动产业转型升级。前三季度，高新技术制造业增加值同比增长5.9%，其中电子通讯设备制造业、医疗仪器制造业和仪器制造业增加值分别增长8.3%和11.8%。

Jon Baldwin
Wow, it's like you work directly for the China.

哇，听起来你就像为中国做事一样。

Ray Comeau
China was the first country hit by Covid-19 and the first country to come out of the pandemic. Once China was able to take control of the virus it only takes time before the economy begins to return.
Modern economies are driven by consumption. If the people fear for their safety going out of their homes they do not spend and therefore there is no economy.
* Controlling the public health situation first, is the fastest way for an economy to return.
Those countries that were able to control the virus quickly suffered the least in economic terms.
IMO many government leaders of various countries did not take the virus seriously and did not heed the advice of their public health officials, nor acted fast enough.

中国是第一个遭受新冠疫情袭击的国家，也是第一个走出疫情的国家。一旦中国能够控制这种病毒，经济开始恢复只需要一段时间。
现代经济是由消费驱动的。如果人们担心他们离开家的安全，他们就不会消费，所以没有经济。
* 首先控制公共卫生状况，是经济复苏的最快方式。
那些能够迅速控制病毒的国家在经济方面受到的影响最小。
在我看来，许多国家的政府领导人没有认真对待这种病毒，没有听取其公共卫生官员的建议，行动也不够迅速。

Some followed the questionable information that came out of the US for months …… “ It’s just a flu”, “it will disappear in a few months”, “wearing face masks is only a suggestion”, etc.
China (and a few other countries) was able to “flatten the curve” in roughly 30 days, and their economies have begun to come back as well.
The most effective means to “flattening the curve”is a combination of:
* A national strategy
* Clear unified communication strategy by the health professionals informing the public
* Everyone wears a mask outside their house
* Everyone gets their temperature checked before being allowed into a store, shopping mall, etc
* Complete lockdowns of everything except basic essential services - grocery, pharmacies, petrol stations, hospitals.
* An infected person tracking system, used to follow up every contact that person has had in the last 14 days, and the contacts those people had over their last 14 days.

一些人几个月来一直关注从美国传出的可疑信息... “这只是一场流感”、“几个月后就会消失”、“戴口罩只是一个建议”等等。
中国(以及其他一些国家)能够在大约30天内“拉平曲线”，它们的经济也开始复苏。
“拉平曲线”的最有效方法是:
* 国家战略
* 医护人员向公众提供清晰及统一的沟通策略
* 每个人在户外都戴着口罩
* 每个人在进入商店、购物中心等之前都要检查体温
* 除基本必需服务外，包括杂货店、药房、加油站和医院，所有设施均须完全封闭。
* 一个感染者跟踪系统，用于跟踪该人在过去14天内的每一次接触，以及这些人在过去14天内的每一次接触。

The lockdowns rules I have seen used in the UK and US are a joke because they are not taken seriously.

我在英国和美国看到的封锁规则就是个笑话，因为他们没有认真对待。

Tomy Chan
and mandatory quarantine 14 days for everyone entering the country.
also all the flight attendant and officer in the airport must wear safety outfit.
if you miss one , the virus will come back.

而且所有进入中国的人都必须被隔离14天。
此外，机场内所有的空乘人员和工作人员都必须穿上安全服。
如果你漏掉一个的话，病毒就会卷土重来。

Wong Kam Luen
It is a new type of virus and we do not know much about the virus. When it first appeared in China, the Chinese did a fantastic job in containing the pandemic. They respected it very much and listened to their medical experts and scientists on the containment methodology. They then set up the policy to contain the virus. From their past experience on SARS they learnt that they must immediately protect the medical front line staff who may be exposed to the virus. They did all the necessary preparation as listed below:

这是一种新型病毒，我们对这种病毒了解不多。当它首次在中国被发现时，中国人在控制这种病毒方面做了出色的工作。他们非常尊重它，并听取了他们的医学专家和科学家关于遏制方法的意见。然后他们制定了控制病毒的政策。根据过往非典的经验，他们认识到必须立即保护可能接触病毒的医疗一线人员。他们做了下列所有必要的准备工作:

1) Make sure that their hospital facilities are not overwhelmed by building more facilities.
2)Test and isolate all patients for treatment
3) Enforce compulsory mask-wearing and social distancing
4) Increased more hand washing and other personal hygiene
5) They instituted contact tracing
6) Coordinate the research facilities to find the cure for the afflicted cases. They also looked into using the antibodies found in cured patients. All in all, they did an excellent job.

1)通过建造更多的设施，确保他们的医院设施不会不堪重负。
2)检查并隔离所有病人接受治疗
3)强制佩戴口罩和保持社交距离
4)加强洗手和其他个人卫生
5)他们建立了接触者追踪系统
6)协调研究机构，为患者寻找治疗方法。他们还研究了如何使用在治愈的患者身上发现的抗体。总而言之，他们做得非常好。

Twinkle Katiyar
When the virus spread outwards to other countries, the response was mixed. those who accepted China’s successful ways contain the virus well with deaths per million less than 10. Those that criticized China for its draconian containment policies did not follow their harsh and strict rules did not fare too well. Their deaths per million are in the hundreds like the US with 695 Deaths/million of population.

当病毒向外扩散到其他国家时，各个国家反应不同。那些接受了中国成功方式的人们很好地控制了病毒，每百万人中死亡人数不到10人。那些批评中国严厉遏制政策的人，没有遵守他们严厉和严格的规则，结果不太好。他们每百万人中的死亡人数是数百人，与美国相似，每百万人中有695人死亡。

Bhavya Jain
China has opened up its economy and they have more or less contained the virus. They instituted testing rigorously and contact tracing, plus compulsory mask-wearing and social distancing. They also have the vaccine through the third stage testing and ready for civilian use by November /December 2020.
The US, on the other hand, had opened up its economy with no compulsory mask-wearing and hardly any social distancing, saw the affected cases spiking upwards resulting in more deaths. How can their economy not be affected when the number of patients and deaths are going skywards. The food outlets and other businesses cannot move forwards because the deathly virus is still swirling around.
Country like Singapore are opening cautiously. They are extending the Wedding dinner crowds from 50 to say 100 in stages. Ditto for religious worshipping and other social events. However strict mask-wearing and social distancing are strictly being observed. There is a semblance of normalcy slowly creeping in. By and large, those leaders who respect the Coronavirus have a better chance of returning their economies to normal faster than those who think that the Coronavirus will disappear one fine day on its own.

中国已经开放了经济，他们或多或少控制了病毒。他们建立了严格的检测和接触者追踪，加上强制戴口罩和社交隔离。他们还拥有通过第三阶段测试的疫苗，到2020年11月/12月可供民用。
另一方面，美国开放了经济，没有强制戴口罩，几乎没有任何社会距离，受影响的病例急剧上升，导致更多的死亡。当病人和死亡人数直线上升时，他们的经济怎么可能不受影响。食品零售店和其他企业无法继续营业，因为这种致命的病毒仍在肆虐。
像新加坡这样的国家也正在谨慎地开放。他们正在把参加婚宴的人数从50人分阶段增加到100人。宗教崇拜和其他社会活动也是如此。然而，严格遵守戴口罩和社会距离。表面上正常的生活正慢慢地恢复。总的来说，那些尊重新冠病毒的领导人比那些认为新冠病毒会在某一天自行消失的人，有更好的机会让他们的经济恢复正常。

Bill Chen
Most economies will report qoq growth as they rebound off lockdown lows. However, few will report yoy growth like China.
What happened in china? Covid-19 was eradicated nationwide as a material threat by April. In fact, portions of the economy was already open by late February. How else did China deliver more than 12 billion masks to America by June?
China is essentially fully open for business since April/May, other than international travel. Domestic consumption of services is still down as people avoid indoor gatherings and social distancing measures are still in place, hampering foot traffic.

大多数经济体都会报告低位反弹的环比增长，然而，很少有经济体会像中国那样报告同比增长。
在中国发生了什么？截至今年4月，新冠肺炎这一重大威胁在全国范围内得到彻底消除。事实上，部分经济部门在二月下旬就已经开放了。否则，到6月份，中国是如何向美国运送超过120亿个口罩的？
除了国际旅行外，中国自4月/5月以来基本上完全对外开放。国内的服务消费仍在下降，因为人们避免室内聚会，社会疏远措施仍在实施，这阻碍了人流量。

Anantharaman G
Covid-19 lockdown in china was draconian, but swift. That helped prevent widespread damage to cash flow and the jobs market throughout the economy.
America, Europe and India do not have covid-19 under control. The economy cannot function normally.
It is this simple: the virus spreads exponentially through both time and space. It cannot be ignored.
Any nation that wants to deliver positive growth must be able to eradicate the virus swiftly and vigilantly maintain the virus-free state of the economy in the absence of a vaccine.

中国的疫情封锁虽然严厉，但却迅速。这有助于防止现金流和整个经济中的就业市场受到广泛损害。
美国、欧洲和印度没有控制住疫情。经济不能正常运转。
事情很简单：病毒在时间和空间中以指数方式传播，不容忽视。
任何希望实现经济正增长的国家都必须迅速根除病毒，并在没有疫苗的情况下警惕地维持无病毒的经济状态。

Alphons Ranner
China's economic recovery gathered pace in the third quarter of 2020, with GDP growth in July-September registering at 4.9 percent from a year earlier, boosted by investment and exports, official data showed Monday. The Q3 GDP growth accelerated from the first half, driven by infrastructure and real estate investment as well as a strong performance in export, according to the Hang Seng Bank China as written by CTGN.
Nomura stated that the quick recovery of the Chinese economy was a product of stringent lockdowns, massive testing, population tracking, a large economy that can afford to be somewhat insulated, and fiscal stimulus via credit expansion.

周一公布的官方数据显示，2020年第三季度，中国经济复苏步伐加快，受投资和出口的推动，7月至9月的 GDP同比增长4.9%。根据CGTN撰写的恒生银行中国分行的数据，受基础设施和房地产投资以及出口强劲表现的推动，第三季度GDP增速较上半年有所加快。
野村证券表示，中国经济的快速复苏是严格的封锁政策、大规模的测试、人口追踪、拥有能够承受一定程度隔离的大型经济体，以及通过信贷扩张实施的财政刺激的结果。

Thomas Shenstone M. Sc. (econ)
* The Chinese economy is big - domestic growth, retarded by Covid, would have been considerable.
* There remain lots of areas of the Chinese where productivity can grow. The Chinese, in my impression, are less internally protectionist of existing firms than are say, the Indians. So growth continues.
* Obviously, the World still needs or at least wants what the Chinese have to offer, viz disposable masks and multifarious manufactures.

* 中国经济规模庞大，国内增长如果被疫情所拖累，将是相当严重的
* 中国仍有许多领域可以提高生产率。在我的印象中，中国对现有企业的内部保护主义倾向要少于印度人。因此，增长仍在继续。
* 显然，世界仍然需要或者至少想要中国提供的东西，即一次性口罩和各种各样的制造品。

Ruby Mei Le
China has been driving global growth for decades. People keep thinking that the USA drives the global economy. In any case, China's government and people sure do a remarkable job. They are both trying to contain the virus and conduct business.
US torpedoed the entire global economy to stop China's rise

几十年来，中国一直在推动全球经济增长。人们一直以来都认为是美国在推动全球经济。无论如何，中国当局和人民确实做了一件了不起的工作。他们都在努力遏制疫情并开展业务。
为了阻止中国的崛起，美国破坏了整个全球经济。

Thomas Lee
Countries that have ALREADY effectively contained covid-19 spread will have a MUCH higher chance for economic growth in 2020 and those failed and STILL failing will have their economies falling FAST !
Most people in China have been back to work and factories and shops open for business for months now. With the covid-19 under control, the economy in China is getting back to almost normal, therefore generating obviously positive growth as they always have for decades.
Things are NOT looking good in most other countries, especially USA, Europe and India.

那些已经有效控制了疫情扩散的国家在2020年将有更高的经济增长机会，而那些在疫情上失败和仍然失败的国家，将让他们的经济快速下滑！
中国的大多数人已经重返工作岗位，工厂和商店已经开张好几个月了。由于疫情得到控制，中国的经济基本恢复正常，所以产生了几十年来一直保持的明显的正增长。
在其他大多数国家，尤其是美国、欧洲和印度，情况并不乐观。

Joe Black Sr.
Are yo sure it grew that much? Do yo believe everything that comes out of China? Be careful, they paly be a different set of rules.

你确定它增长这么高吗？你相信从中国出来的一切吗？小心点，他们玩的是另一套规则。

George Yang
There is always someone who can not accept the truth.

总有人不能接受事实。

Paul Sutton
China is a totalitarian regime. When they say “lock down,” citizens “lock down,” . It would be easy to contain covid-19 anywhere in the world if you could simply close your borders and make everyone stay indoors for two weeks. problem solved!

中国是威权主义国家。当他们说“封锁”的时候，市民们就“封锁”。如果你能简单地关闭边境，让所有人在室内呆上两个星期，那么在世界任何地方都可以很容易地控制疫情。问题解决了！

Yausi Tamn
China grew it by not pretending to be dead , the US and Europe are all pretending to be dead that's why they are still dead , are you dead too ?

中国不装死，从而发展，而美国和欧洲都在装死，这就是为什么他们仍然爬不起来，你们也起不来了吗？