Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam Lawyer
Comparison is not wrong. Chinese compare themselves to the US though some of their Tech is still behind.
The Problem is ONLY COMPARING AND NOT WORKING TO ACHIEVE THE COMPARISON
Thats where India takes the cake.
India talks and talks and talks and talks and talks. India delivers NOTHING. India sends no student on any scholarship or funding. India invests ZERO on researchers. Last year alone 43000 Indian Researchers applied for Research Visas in the European Union.
China invests money on Research. China invests money on Researchers. China invests money and time on Development. China sends 15000 - 20000 Students a year on Government Funding to learn Aerospace or Semiconductors or Superconductors and specialized fields.
Thats why the Comparison made between India and China is aggravating.
China built a superb foundation by manufacturing for foreign companies, then a strong first floor by manufacturing for their own companies, then a strong second floor by manufacturing medium grade products for their own companies and then a strong third floor by setting up a component hub for all kinds of manufacturing and now building a Fourth Floor by establishing High Grade Manufacturing.
India built a Strong Foundation for our own Manufacturers but then never built for over 50 years. Now they are trying to build all the way to the 4th Floor directly without strengthening any of the lower floors. THE COLLAPSE IS GUARANTEED
A decade or so back there was an ad for commonwealth scholarships to the UK. There were 200 or so scholarships. A relative of mine went to Delhi for attending the entrance test. After writing the test she was told by many people that all the slots had already been filled up by people who were recommended by a top industrialist.
This is the state of India. Everything depends on recommendations. So people are left to fend for themselves for their future.
Try saying this some specific spaces, You get bombed with pictures of temples saying we were the forefathers of Architecture, Science , technology.
A friend of mine recently visited China and he gave me a figure of 20. It will take another 20 years for India to be in the level of China. But for that a good government should come. No idea who. But if the present government is going to rule, then India might take another …..hmmmm hmmmm….I think India would never be like China.
no India cannot be like china. china is a homogenous country with a homogneous race a homogenous language and a homogenous beleif. India is not a homgoenous country. to attain greatness we must divide and form a EU like association then we can reach greatness.
For all our framed indian science, there is nada research culture , only jaggard ideas are hyped on , real research gets its EU visa and will never be back .The GOI will simply print some graphics showing how india is #1.
Sir…They started doing research only from past 7–8 years only. Before that They are stealing secrets from american , german companies.
Lets give it till 2029
Can we reach even 50% of Chinas Potential??
Who said we are not into research? We are researching on how to make our religion better than others religion.
Vinit Vatsal Jha Software Engineer, Political Thinker, Technology Enthusiast
It’s delusional to compare India with China. While Indian policies are geared towards socialism and are largely meant for getting votes, Chinese policies are geared towards growth and development.
It was largely in the same league as India till 80s and early 90s. However, China has rapidly transformed itself from a centrally planned, growth stifling model to one which allowing for an economic model which closely resembles capitalism.
Against conventional wisdom, we take the end of 1976 as the start of reform and argue that China basically became a market economy by the end of the 90s before it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. In the new millennium, the Chinese economy has kept its growth momentum and become more integrated with the global economy.
This change in stance has unleashed its tremendous potential and has catapulted the country to a developed one which is second to none. Its economy may still be behind that of the USA, however it’s not so if we were to go by the Purchasing Power Parity.
India as a country seems to be unfit for parliamentary form of democracy. There needs to be a certain level of education which its voters must possess to exercise their right to vote. The current government and the previous ones have only had one objective in mind which is to gain power at any cost. While spending money on populist policies might help one in getting votes, it certainly does the country no good.
Moreover, the inexplicable arrogance of Indian public is astonishing. We somehow tend to believe that we are the best in the world and the world follows us. A certain Indian superiority narrative has been successfully built and fed to us which has resulted in such a catastrophic delusion. This coupled with what our brain-dead news channels and newspapers project is why we compare ourself with China and even think that we are somehow better off.
Robert Quek former Retired. Prior Employment in Finance Sector
Statistically, India should grow faster. It has a much lower base. GDP in India in current term in 2019 was $2.87 trillion, 1/5 of China’s $14.34 trillion. Per capita was $2,100 vs $10,262 in China.
But India’s growth fluctuated widely, from a high of over 8.5% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2019. Covid has devastated the economy in 2020, which according to IMF data fell 10.3%. Popular forecast was for a surge of over 10% in 2021. This looks unachievable in view of the current wave of Covid in the country.
China’s growth was steady from over 10% in the 2010’s to 8% through 2015 to 6% through to 2019. It did not suffer as much from Covid and managed to achieve growth of 2.3% in 2020. Growth in 1Q2021 was a staggering 18.3%, looks likely to exceed the Government’s target growth of 6% in 2021, maybe even exceeds IMF’s forecast of 8%.
Probability is that the India-China gap in GDP or in per capita has widened. China’s growth this year rests on high visibility factors. It should exceed India’s, which mires in uncertainties. Both countries face limits to growth going down the road. India’s less advance economy should give it more opportunities and grow faster. But it has lots more to do to realise gains. China too have lots to do - technology development, spread growth widely across the country, and more even rural and urban income and between regions.
The limits to growth in India are:
(1) Infrastructures poor and rural trap. Infrastructures are the prerequisites of economic growth. Shortages restricts movements of people, and industrial and market developments. Such restrictions means no benefit from conurbation and urbanisation, the source of economic vibrancy, innovation, and creativity. Caught in the rural trap subject the largest segment of the population to the vagaries of the weather and low productivity. Uncertainties between low prices from bumper harvest to drought and flood and fragmented markets, make rural poverty the norm.
(2) One explanation of rural low productivity is under-employment. Migration of rural people into urban centres should therefore wrought productivity gains. But the fruits will only be sweet if they move into gainful employment like in factories instead of becoming roadside vendors. There must be good jobs creation from urbanisation.
India does not have an impressive record of industrial growth. It did not create enough jobs to yield the full measure of productivity gains. India is protectionist. The richest chunks of the most profitable businesses are owned by traditional old-rich families. Most of them cater to the domestic market and are not competitive internationally. India is not actively attracting foreign investments. FDIs that compete in the domestic market face great obstacles. Significant ones are in joint ventures with the traditional family controlled companies. On the whole, there is a lack of refresher. The manufacturing sector did not spark even a resemblance of the fervour and results you see in China. Exports from India are less than the exports from just the Chinese province of Guangdong.
India as we said has lots to do to achieve its potentials.
China also faces limits to growth. In the main this is deliberate policy and reflects the stage of its development, (1) moving away from quantity to quality growth, (2) the emphasis on technology and innovation, (3) towards more and more domestic demand, and (4) more and more towards services rather than goods. Then there is the unique problem of the US trade war and technology war. US is a technology leader in many fields. It is also China’s largest single exports market.
China has already sketched its road ahead in the dual circulation strategy and 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025), which also outlines where it sees itself through 2035. The near and medium term goals are to achieve technology self-reliance, growth of domestic demand to reduce its reliance on foreign markets, and to continue its policy to foster foreign trade and investments inward and outward in both directions. India's policy can't be compared with China's at all.
India really needs a radical revolution like in China more than 70 years ago, completely changing Indians' perceptions and rebalancing land rights, eliminating Indian superstitions, eliminating inequality between men and women, and implementing a centralized regime. Unfortunately, these things are not possible in India. The current Indian leader Modi is a Hindu fanatic, he can not dispel people's superstition because he will lose votes and political power, this is the sadness of the western democratically elected system!
I agree that many things needed to be done are not possible. What I hope will at least be seriously considered are (1) infrastructure planning that sincerely fulfils economic needs, hopefully also produces some social benefits, (2) serious thoughts about its foreign policy to really “look east” considering who help with what for its terrible Covid infections, and (3) move away from spending money about weapons and arms and talking about them more to boast than real power. These are all possible if the Indian people and their welfare are put upfront.
Jim Cy Sia
India growth doctored. Imf is supported by US, mislead info
Bill Chen Budding economist
What does India compare with China. for argument’s sake, let us examine 2019, the last year of normalcy pre-pandemic.
China grew 6 percent to a 14 trillion economy.
India grew 4 percent to a 3 trillion economy.
Let us imagine India would have grown 10 percent a year without covid, while China slowed down to 5.
China would have added 700 billion to her economy, while India would have added 300 billion in 2020.
That is 133 percent more growth in absolute terms, because the base is different.
It really depends on how the question is framed, but until recently, China was winning in both absolute and relative growth from similar population base.
India's growth has swung wildly from less than 4 percent to more than 10 percent in the last decade. It is more vulnerable to external shocks.
India will also have to restructure her economy when it hits the middle income transition zone, which is what China is trying to do with the MIC 2025 plan.
But before that, the number 1 problem is also india's oldest.
The 70 year devaluation of the rupee, which has lost half its value versus the yuan this century.
We have to because their so called advance tech fighter jets start roaming around Indian border so we ask our government why are our equipment outdated and are forced to invest in research and development or else they will lose elections.
We don’t do it to irritate Chinese people but rather its our internal matter (vote politics). And in recent years national security is top priority topic in elections.
So we discuss what can be done to catch up with china.
Recently china launched its mars rover now people in our country are discussing why is ISRO not making a mars rover to catch up with Chinese. Why is government not funding ISRO, what is the problem.
If china would be a friendly country to India then maybe we would have developed faster but unfortunately we are surrounded by enemy.
Every time china achieves something big, Indians get alerted if it could be used against India, there are debates on TV, politicians are questioned, etc, now you can understand why we compare.
Recently china installed its 5G tower in Mt. Everest. Now India is trying to deploy 5G ASAP (unfortunately its struck due to covid).
And to be honest we are not decades behind, its that we just can’t copy patents in china. Yes we are maybe 15 to 20 years behind china because China liberalized its economy in 1978 and India did it in 1991. So you can calculate the difference.
Ray Comeau Decades working in analyzing risk and plotting strategy
Thanks for request
In the middle of a 500 mile race, how do we decide who is fastest? China and India are both developing and have a long way to go.
Why China has been growing at a faster rate is a result of many differences between the two nations, of which these are a few :
* Differences in literacy rates
* A huge mixture of diverse cultures vs one uniform culture
* 22 Official languages vs one national language
* An unwieldy political system of governance vs a streamlined one
* Over 50 political parties vs one dominant political party
* Differences in education systems
* Indian trade is highly protectionist vs China being fairly open, resulting in Indian trade being the same size as Spain’s and China being the world’s largest trader.
What direction each takes in the future depends on circumstances and the ability to make adjustments as needed.
Michael Sue former Studied,lived and Worked in UK,China,USA,Canada (1962-2021)
China’s economy is growing at the faster rate over India’s. China’s economy is driven by a broad spectrum of players …from SOE’s to private entrepreneurs . Internally in China’s domestic market there is a free spirit adopted by young entrepreneurs “to JUST DO IT” ! ( without interference or rigid controls from the government ). This is not the case in India where “there are still TOO MANY LEVELS OF CORRUPTION to wade through before young entrepreneurs can build on ideas or success ! ( it is like having to “grease 6 palms” to move forward 3 steps ! or ….family connections , or …..??? ) India does have huge potential but the 1% ( as in the US ) controls 90% of the wealth AND OPPORTUNITIES ! It is NOT A FREE AND OPEN MARKET !
中国经济增长速度快于印度。中国的经济是由各种各样的参与者推动的... 从国有企业到私营企业家。在中国国内市场，有一种年轻创业者“只管去做吧！”的自由精神(不受政府干预或严格管控)。但印度的情况并非如此，在年轻创业者建立理念或取得成功之前，仍有太多层次的腐败问题需要克服！这就像”贿赂六个人”才能前进三步！或者... 家族关系，或者...？？？印度确实有巨大的潜力，但是1%的人(就像美国)控制着90%的财富和机会！这不是一个自由和开放的市场！
Nimesh Parekh Corona and it's effects in global and indian economy
The difference between the two is
Aggressive and consistent which defines the nature of the 2 countries, also the framework of both countries on how they run the country is different. India is a populous country with many country leading policies and economy scaling activities had just scaled up with big leaps in innovations and scientific approach with mammoth success in space science and technology. We are a young India now, ready to experiment and a strong leadership. We hope once we stabilize from corona's cloud, we will jump back to organic growth once again. We had missed the industrial revolution which boosted research and mfging capabilities of today's many developed nations, but anyways, just as the story says, the tortoise finally wins …… so we will.
Leow Kam Soon
Modi must hold Rupee at 70 to a dollar. If Rupee fall to 100, India must calculate growth rate in terms of Rupee,and not in USD. Argentina was a great country, but now no more. USSR (Russia ) was a great country, but GDP is less than a Chinese province. Economy of a country can grow, similarly it may decline. UK economy is shrinking each year. Very soon it may fall behind Brazil…..
When India attended independence Modi was not the ruler and neither was the $ to an INR 70, but then why could the, then rulers could not maintain the equilibrium of ₹ vs $… Just as they say, every Sun has a sunrise and a Sunset ….. so India's Sun set in the medivial period, but had a glorious and rich past, which was looted by innumerable nations, so now, Sun's of many are setting and India's Sun is gonna rise and shine damn bright … so bright indeed, that some will not able to see it's brightness…..
Time is coming at a very very fast pace to change the global order and rankings.
【作者回复】当印度独立的时候，莫迪不是统治者，在70卢比兑1美元的时候，他也不是统治者，但是为什么当时的统治者就无法维持美元和卢比的平衡... 正如他们所说，太阳每天都会日出和日落... 所以，印度的日落是在中世纪，但有着辉煌而丰富的过去，被无数国家掠夺，所以现在，许多国家的太阳正在落下，印度的太阳将升起，闪耀着刺眼的光芒... 非常的明亮，以至于有些人不能看着它的光芒...
Leow Kam Soon
To maintain a ‘healthy’ growth rate, just use Rupee to calculate Indian GDP. If Rupee can hold firm at 1 Rupee to 1 dollar like in 1947, India is the biggest economy in the world now. With 135 Trillion economy (in INR or USD), surely no other country can come even close to mighty India.
Just like the worst analyst always become the CEO, right?
Jim Cy Sia
Keep dreaming . About your glorious past - it’s mostly fairy tales . Glorious past was - Greek , Roman , Arab .
Fabian Ong Executive Director (2013-present)
India's moves forward a by certain sectors, and then move backwards a little.And not all sectors are moving forward at the same time and it does not seem to have a consistent forward momentum.
India's economy is mostly smoke and mirrors. The government tell you it's growing and the some analyst want you to believe it's growing but entire country is moving relatively slowly. Even the software sector which was the fastest growing sector 15 - 20 years ago is growing much slower today.
Mumin Ali PH.D. in Politics, New York University
As per IMF India is growing only at a rate of 12.5 and China is worse at 8.4. India will even go worse after the new Covid hit. China will slightly do better as India will lose.
But as of now, the real fastest-growing economy is Libya. which is growing at a rate of 131%.
Jim Cy Sia
PhD? You don't qualify for a degree
India has negative growth, will collapse from covid
You find a solution to India 600 million looking for a meal daily
Well, my figures do not come from dreams. It comes from IMF. That is the difference between PH.D. of NY and other Tom, Dick Harries.
Seems the western institutions are filled with out of touch experts these days. John Hopkins also said US and UK have the best defence against pandemic before covid. I guess IMF is equally clueless about real world.
True. Only humanoid bots do understand the economy these days.
lol, we can circle back in a couple months to see who is correct. Critical thinking is the key to success.
Indians also compare India with Bangladesh and ridicule India. Indians are not rational on many issues.
Jay Puli Macro Economics
In future India should grow faster but there is lack of focus on this with most energy and finances spend on communal tensions, grand projects, statues. The other problem is administration which is utterly incompetent.
So unless Indians realize and wakeup it will continue to slide forget china it already lost to Bangladesh and who knows it may lose to Pakistan as well.
Surender Yadav Manager at Steel Authority of India Limited (2018-present)
These “many” Indians are mass vote bank Indians. A major chunk of these people are not aspirational ones and many of them are either govt employees or poor folks. I am digressing somewhat but it will clear the backdrop of Indian people. India consists of three types of people.
First ones 6 to 7 crores people who have economical and social standards as good as Europeans
Next 40 crore working-class people, who have a standard of south-east Asia except for Singapore, Hongkong.
The remaining 80 to 90 crore Indians are in the league of backward African nations.
Political parties want to hold on to these 80 crore people and a few working-class people.
I think that I already have answered your question. These “many indians” do not know about the reality of India and China.
India is not growing and will not grow anytime soon . Economy of China is speeding ahead with some forecasts giving it a 15 % growth in 2021. Gdp of China is 6 times more than India . Only fools would believe that India could ever catch up with China . Right now India should think of coming out of the covid hell
Leow Kam Soon
China can build entire new city in 5 years.
Many new cities are developed into smart cities and non were known to people outside China. All these could materialize because China leadership has the determination and will. How is Indian GIFT city in comparison? Take 50 years to take shape?
Satish Aggarwal former Manager (1965-1991)
Both the countries were about the same in the 1950’s, but the Gdp of China is now about 5 times that of India. It is strange that with wages so low in India, it cannot compete with China in manufacturing. However, the rate of growth in India now might exceed that of China but the base is so low that it will not be equal to it in the foreseeable future.
Jim Cy Sia Business Finance from St. Cloud State University (1979)
China at faster rate and higher value
India figures often exaggerated and cov 19 will bring down the whole India economy
For India to truly rise, there must be a major revolution, the caste system must be completely abolished, and land reform must be carried out.
P0001 former Trader
Because governments lie. I am hearing that India is fastest growing economy for last 15 years. Either Congress or BJP.
But data says something else -
Media is completely sold and they mislead masses. India’s HDI ranking is constantly falling for last 20 years. 2020 HDI rank is 131.
Hank Barley Mastered Coding, Then Traveling For Business (1982-present)
Been to both countries. China hands down. China has been growing double digits for decades, and although more matured and grew 7% - 9% in the last few, she rebounded from COVID in very good condition and will have one of the highest growth in history. India had a few years of low percentage growth, and they are mixed with low to no growth years too. A better way to gauge is not just using statistics, but actual on the ground physical evidences. Take Delhi, the capital of India, and compare it to any of the 2nd or even 3rd level Chinese cities, and it is apparent that the Chinese had a more balance society and much better infrastructure. Unlike in India where one can see the rich and grinding poor, you will not see herds of homeless and people in rags begging food. Proper employment is such a problem in India, but in China more and more people are working their way to the middle and upper classes. Infrastructure? No comparison. You will never see Chinese crowded on top of trains, even during the annual mass journeys to home during Chinese New Year people can find safe transportation. Power is reliable in China, where brown outs are common in many cities of India, and even black outs. China has the largest car market, while the majority of Indians can’t even afford the much trumpeted $5000 Tata that can’t sustain above 50 MPH or the wheel bearings might burned up. I don’t want to upset Indian nationalists by continuing, and I think readers got the point.
Anyway, I expect counter arguments that what I described is up till now and India will grow faster in the future. Will it, but I don’t see how. The Chinese economy is still growing on top of a much bigger base. Automation in its famed manufacturing and supply chain is one of the highest in the world, and higher rate to come. AI, ML, Big Data, 5G (6G is coming soon), and many many advanced techs are increasing implemented in cooperative manners, and their effects can be seen and felt. Meanwhile, India struggles with focus, social and ethnic issues, and oh those grinding poor masses.